金沙中国有限公司(1928.HK)19年第二季业绩略逊预期上调至“买入“评级目标价44.7港元
机构：中泰国际
评级：买入
目标价：44.7港元
19年第二季经调整EBIDTA略逊预期
金沙中国第二季净收入为21.4亿美元(同比增长1.4%)，经调整EBITDA为7.65亿美元(同比增长2.0%)，略逊我们预期的7.78亿美元，主要由于1)金沙城中心因改造工程要关闭部分赌厅而影响收入及2)高端中场净赢率下跌使整体中场博彩毛收入增长减慢。虽然如此，集团成本管理能力卓越，经营成本保持稳定，第二季经调整EBITDA利润率为35.6%，同比提升20个基点。
金沙城中心改造工程影响开始浮现
集团自第一季末开始对金沙城中心的改造工程，需要关闭部分赌厅，管理层承认工程对业务带来影响，例如工程期间产生噪音令客人却步，但是能够通过调配赌枱至其他赌场(如澳门威斯尼人)抵销部分影响。第二季金沙城中心的贵宾厅转码数同比减少50.9%；角子机投注额同比减少18.0%。公司预计金沙城中心改造成”澳门伦敦人“的工程将在2020年至2021年分阶段完成，但我们预期下半年部分客人亦会分流至周边其他竞争对手。
受益于旅客增长，基本中场表现强劲
我们第二季基本中场毛收入为7.56亿美元(同比增长14.7%)，创四年来最高，我们认为集团拥有全澳门最庞大规模的综合度假村及房间供应，明显受惠于上半年达20.6%的访澳旅客增长，房间供应与赌场产生良好的协同效应。第二季基本中场单桌日均毛收入为8,600美元，创三年半来最高，反映集团在基本中场业务的竞争力，我们对金沙中国的中场业务长线充满信心。
微降目标价至$44.7港元，估值吸引，升评级至“买入“我们把集团2019及2020年的经调整EBITDA预测分别下调2.1%及2.4%，给予44.7港元的目标价，这对应2019年预测15.3倍EV/EBITDA。公司股价自7月高位累积调整幅度达到15.1%，目前预测EV/EBITDA及股息率分别为12.4倍及5.6%，估值显得吸引，因此把评级从“增持“上调至“买入“，对应潜在升幅为26.1%。
风险提示
(一)签证政策收紧；(二)赌场续牌风险；(三)“澳门伦敦人“项目改造延期
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