融创中国（1918.HK）稳规模降杠杆出利润首次评级覆盖给予“买入”评级目标价52港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：52港元
投资要点
首次评级覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价52港元：我们认为融创中国进入了“稳规模，降杠杆，出利润”的阶段，公司的品牌、产品力、拿地能力以及融资能力，都是行业顶级水平，竞争力非常突出。我们预计公司2019/2020年净利润分别为243.5和313.5亿元，分别同比增长47.0%和28.8%。我们首次评级覆盖公司给予“买入”评级，目标价52港元，基于2019/2020年8.3倍和6.5倍PE，较公司的NAV折让25%，较当前股价还有59%的上升空间。
高周转高效率，规模为王：通过高周转的模式迅速的把规模做到行业前列，而由此导致的高杠杆是企业经营的结果，高杠杆的风险可以高周转模式来化解。同时，公司构建了优质的土地储备，体现在区域分布合理，超过70%位于一、二线城市，去化周期快；严控土地成本，留下充足利润空间。
高端精品战略，区域聚焦：既做到了产品力的聚焦，又做到了区域的聚焦。在产品定位上偏向中高端改善型，在重点城市的核心区域打造高端精品，形成市场口碑；在区域聚焦上，选择对的城市，充分挖掘该城市的潜力，做大做强，再向周边延伸，进一步加强区域的深耕。
招拍挂收并购，双重发力：融创拥有多元的土地获取方式，尤其在并购市场，形象口碑好，决策速度快效率高。在招拍挂市场竞争激烈的今天，公司土储补充渠道更丰富，且成本可控。随着文旅城等项目投入运营，公司将以此获得更多拿地机会，并提升整个项目的土地价值，与地产板块联动。
业绩快速提升，财务改善：经过几年销售高速增长，融创的业绩进入快速提升期，结转的利润大幅提升，而规模的扩张进入平稳阶段，财务杠杆逐年降低，预计到2021年将降至行业平均水平，公司目前派息率为20%，随着财务实力增强，派息率有望提升。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓；行业调控政策加严；流动性收紧；公司销售不及预期；文旅城经营不及预期；人民币贬值。
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