野村升中国建材(3323.HK)目标价至6.6港元维持“中性”评级
野村发表研究报告指出,自从中国建材(3323.HK)发盈喜后,已将该公司今明两年的盈利预测每年上调5%,以反映较高的水泥付运及水泥价格,同时目标价也上调10%至6.6港元,主要得益于现金流改善,惟评级仍维持“中性”,因为年初至今,中国建材已跑赢大市约18%,股价再升空间有限。
野村与中国建材管理层沟通后,获悉上半年其水泥付运或增加约7%,价格则有高单位数按年升幅。野村预测中国建林中期纯利可达61亿元人民币,即按年升61%,与公司所发盈喜相符,但政策可能放宽则有望提升下半年水泥需求,惟因基数较高,预测下半年盈利增长只会持平。
野村又表示,虽然生产规模大,但中国建材每吨水泥及熟料的成本达209元人民币,比海螺水泥(0914.HK)及华润水泥(1313.HK)分别高出20%及12%。野村认为生产成本偏高乃中国建材之长期隐患,尤其当放宽政策未能刺激需求致令减价战重演时,问题将会显现。
野村相信,中国建材能否降低净负债率和融资成本将左右其股价走势。
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