澳优(1717.HK)衍生金融工具公允价值变动影响净利但更应积极关注核心净利维持“优于大市“评级
机构：海通证券
评级：优于大市
投资要点：
公司公告2019H1正面盈利预告。2019年上半年，公司实现收入约31.5亿元，同比增长21.9%；其中自家品牌羊奶粉收入约13.2亿元，同比增45.3%，自家品牌牛奶粉收入约14.1亿元，同比增20.7%；毛利率52.1%，同比增5.7pct；公司权益持有人应占利润2.6亿元，同比下降20.4%，经调整公司权益持有人应占利润4.3亿元，同比增长63.8%。
衍生金融工具公允价值变动影响净利润，但更应积极关注核心净利润表现。公司于2018年4月11日公告收购海普诺凯集团余下15%股权（该收购利于海普诺凯更好落实公司经营策略和更大协同效益），涉及或然代价最多为2988万股股份，按照公允价值估算，因2019/6/31日收盘价较2018/12/31日上涨6.76港元，导致约2.02亿港元（折合1.74亿人民币）亏损。我们认为：1）该公允价值变动亏损为非现金亏损，对公司现金流量及经营状况无不利影响，经调整净利润更能够真实反应公司业务的实际经营情况，更应积极关注；2）该或然代价最高为2988万股，上限已经锁定，且因公司已经按公允价值计量，在其后及最终发放时不会造成除公允价值变动以外的其他亏损影响；3）该或然代价对应股份数占当前公司总股本（16.08亿股）的1.86%，对于每股收益稀释的影响较小。
自家牛奶粉19下半年有望提速。2019H1，自家牛奶粉营收约14.1亿元，同比增20.7%，在去年同期较高基数下仍获得较快增长（去年上半年11.7亿元，全年23.7亿元）。我们预计自家牛奶粉业务2019年下半年有望迎来更优异表现：1）2019年4月1日，海普诺凯萃护、欧选、爱荷美、能立多、美优高等多款婴幼儿配方奶粉获批，有望为下半年销售带来一定助力；2）有机牛奶粉（淳璀、悠蓝）、美纳多等处于较好的增长势头。
羊奶粉持续高速增长。19H1自家羊奶粉收入同比增45%，表现优异，佳贝艾特是全球羊奶粉领头羊，2014年起连续5年在中国进口婴幼儿配方奶粉市场名列榜首，占比60%左右，拥有强大的奶源供应链，竞争优势非常显著。
盈利预测与投资建议。我们预计，公司2019-2021年归母净利润分别为8.3、11.1和14.4亿元（衍生金融产品公允价值变动与股价相关，19-21年净利润预测均未考虑公允价值波动，即为实际上的经调整净利润）；对应EPS分别为0.52、0.69和0.90元。考虑到公司未来几年有望维持较高增长，给予2019年25-28倍PE，对应合理价值区间13.00-14.56元/股，按照1港元=0.86元人民币，对应合理价值区间15.12-16.93港元/股，维持优于大市评级。
风险提示：1）婴配粉政策需求红利持续时间短，过早进入价格竞争；2）经济下行，高端产品销售不及预期；3）出生人口继续大幅下降，行业需求缩水。
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