澳优(01717.HK)利空即将出尽预计将迎来最佳买入时点维持“买入”评级
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
事件简述
自7月24日起，澳优股价呈现出连续下跌的态势，7月31日澳优发布2019年半年报盈喜后，次日（8月1日）股价在开盘后稍有上涨，但8月2日及5日仍然出现下跌。7月24日至今累计下跌22.4%。
事件点评
澳优股价持续下跌，除去宏观经济等外部因素，主要原因在于市场对澳优的一些担忧情绪扰动，我们对当前市场关心的两个主要问题进行了解读：
1.羊奶粉渠道增速与报表增速是否匹配？据渠道跟踪，上半年佳贝艾特的渠道端增速约为30%，不过这一增速为单店增速，考虑到公司10%-15%的网点扩张速度，实际来看渠道表现与报表端表现基本一致。此外，公司在库存管理方面采用产品追溯闭环系统，对渠道的库存情况实时监控，控制在1.5-2个月之间，渠道供销情况与公司报表端体现是基本一致的。
2.衍生金融工具的影响会持续多久？追根溯源来讲，这一事件的本质在于股权激励。公司进行股权激励，在解锁股权时先行解锁了一部分，后期的解锁还需要再次考核业绩的完成情况，因此承担未来要发股的责任，确认一笔金融负债。业绩考核期为三年（2018、2019、2020年），也就是说直到2020年，公司都要定期对该衍生金融工具的公允价值进行核算，都要受到其变动的影响。但这一影响仅仅为会计核算亏损/收益，不影响核心业绩。
公司的基本面趋势向上，核心逻辑不变，未来发展依然有较大的空间。公司的核心业务增长稳健，持续向上。此外，公司积极开拓益生菌全产业链业务，进一步丰富营养品板块，产品组合愈发完善。我们认为，公司主体经营依然维持着稳健的增长态势，在同行业中有着较强的竞争力，短期下调不改澳优长期收入逻辑，长期发展依然坚定看好。
盈利预测
预计公司19-21年收入分别为73.9亿元/100.1亿元/128.0亿元，同比增长37.1%/35.5%/27.9%，归母净利润分别为7.1亿元/11.3亿元/15.0亿元，同比增长11.6%/60.0%/32.7%；EPS分别为0.44元/0.70元/0.93元，对应PE为25X/16X/12X。若不考虑该衍生金融工具的影响，我们预计归母净利润分别同比增长33.5%/33.7%/32.9%，EPS分别为0.53元/0.70元/0.94元，对应PE为20X/16X/12X，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
需求下滑/产能过剩/行业竞争加剧/食品安全问题。
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