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花旗下调零售股目标价料利福(1212.HK)及莎莎(0178.HK)最受影响
格隆汇 08-02 17:43
花旗以“ 一个悲惨的夏季 ”为题发表研究报告,认为受近期示威活动影响,将香港零售股盈利预测下调介乎6%至27%,以反映同店销售展望转弱。该行估计利福国际(1212.HK) 及莎莎国际(0178.HK) 最受示威影响,源于其盈利主要依赖香港市场。
由于周大福(1929.HK) 及六福集团(0590.HK) 香港市场仅占核心经营利润的20%及40%,所以影响料较温和。另周大福现估值相当于预测市盈率 13至14倍,已接近历史低位。
该行指出,6月香港零售销售下跌7%,当中珠宝钟表跌17%、百货公司货品跌6%,而药物及化妆品则跌4%。花旗估计其覆盖的香港零售商,自6月9日示威发生以来,同店销售已跌约20%,而情况自7月以来持续恶化,认为下跌幅度最多逾两成,而示威活动亦对访港旅客有影响。6月内地访港旅客增速减慢至10%,而今年首五月增长为18%,该行估计受旅游警示影响,7月情况将更差,该行的渠道调查亦显示酒店预订数字按年下挫30%至40%。
在同店销售展望方面,由于示威仍然持续,花旗估计今年余下时间旅游业气氛将持续偏弱,回望2015至2016年零售市道向下,当时零售销售复苏是受人民币升值及放宽签证所带动,该行认为除非看到新的催化剂,否则将预期未来两年港澳同店销售增长将持平。花旗下调零售股目标价详情见下表:

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