海尔电器(1169.HK)主业经营回升估值优势显著维持“推荐”评级
机构：招商证券
评级：推荐
主业回暖，终端将逐渐向出货端传导。洗衣机和热水器是海尔电器旗下两大 家电业务板块。洗衣机板块自 18H2 以来，行业内销出货增速明显放缓，2019 年 1-4 月洗衣机内销出货甚至出现同比下滑；直至 19.5-6 月，行业整体景气 有所复苏，内销出货量+8%/+7.2%（产业在线）。海尔洗衣机 Q2 销售情况 也有所改善，内销出货+0.8%/+6.9%；终端销售（中怡康线下） +11.8%/+4.6%， 终端改善早于出货。热水器方面，2019.6 零售量同比增速也已转正，海尔 5-6 月单月零售量 YoY+12.8%/+6.8%，领先于行业更早复苏。
1）洗衣机：18Q4、19Q1 海尔洗衣机业务收入 YoY-4.5%/+4%；19Q2，据 中怡康，海尔洗衣机市占率在 32%+，较去年同期提升 1.8pct； 4-6 月 ASP+3% /+8%/+9%，持续上涨，量价层面均呈良好趋势。
2）热水器：18Q4、19Q1 热水器收入 YoY-1.7%/+1.7%；19Q2，据中怡康， 海尔热水器月度平均市占率在 20%+，较去年同期提升 1pct+，竞争对手 A.O. 史密斯份额同期则同比下降；但 ASP 层面，海尔 Q2 均价 YoY-4.4%，故销 额层面预计 Q2 也仅为小幅改善。
3）分销&物流：分销、物流业务趋稳，对盈利影响有限；Q2 黑电、空调销售 景气弱，或将影响分销业务收入。依 2018 年报海尔电器分部收入、利润占比 初步测算，洗衣机/热水器/渠道分销/物流利润率分别为 9.8%/12.1%/1.9% /4.4%，物流、分销对公司盈利能力的影响有限。
更强的盈利能力，向好的经营趋势。2014-2018 年，海尔电器依托较高的产 品定位，持续优化产品结构，实现盈利能力的改善：毛利率从2014年的14.7%， 提高到 2018 年的 17.8%；净利率也由 3%提高到 4%；19Q1 在加大的经营压 力下仍然实现 4.5%的净利率，YoY+0.5pct。
估值优势显著。公司 Q1 总营收合计增长 0.2%，归母净利增长 10.3%，预计 Q2 收入端可能受黑电、空调的渠道业务而有所拖累；但考虑到零售端改善在 H2 将进一步向出货端传导，全年业绩仍然值得期待。据 wind 保守预计 19 年 净利润 41~42 亿（+8~10%），当前市值约 479 亿，18 年报账面净现金 190 亿，扣除现金后 19 年 PE 估值仅约 7x。
风险提示：消费品景气下行超预期、地产景气下行超预期
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