好未来(TAL.US)FY2020Q1点评收入增长符合指引维持“增持”评级目标价32.97美元
机构：广发证券
评级：增持
目标价：32.97 美元
核心观点：
公司发布 FY2020Q1 业绩，符合前期指引，销售费用率提升 期内收入同比增长 27.6%至 702.8 百万美元，符合此前指引。入学人 次同比增长 40.6%至 1718.2 千人次。NonGAAP 营运利润同比下降 7.3% 至 83.4 百万美元。归属股东净利润同比下降 110.9%至亏损 7.3 百万美元， NonGAAP 归属股东净利润同比下降 77.0%至 18.8 百万美元。递延收入同 比下降 27.1%至 968.4 百万美元。公司预计 FY2020Q2 收入同比增长 28-31%至 895.7-916.7 百万美元（对应人民币口径收入增长 32-35%）。 净 利润下降主要原因为非经常事项和销售费用率提升。
未来公司增长驱动力将逐步向线上业务迁移 公司已连续 4 个季度（至 FY2020Q1）培优中心和小班教室数量同比 增速低于前期。考虑到高基数和小班教室的成熟期等因素，公司 FY2020 在线下培优小班的增速中枢可能会从 30-60%小幅下移。
财年内关注暑期促销后转化情况，维持增持评级 公司整体的增长驱动力将逐步向线上业务迁移。财年内关注 Q1 和 Q2 暑期促销活动带来的生源在 Q3 及 Q4 的留存情况。我们调整公司 2020-2022 财年 EPS（美元/ADS）预测分别为 0.54、1.03 和 1.41 美元以 反应非经常事项和销售费用率变动。当前价格对应 2020-2022 年 PE 为 59.51、31.12 和 22.79 倍。使用历史平均估值水平计算合理价值，给予合 理价值 32.97 美元/ADS，对应 2021 财年 32 倍 PE，即 5 年期历史平均前 向估值，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示 1.美股和 A 股投资风格差异风险。2.人民币汇率波动风险。3.政策变动 风险
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
