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希望教育(1765.HK)收购鹤壁汽车工程职业学院首次布局华北地区继续扩大职教版图维持买入评级目标价1.6港元
格隆汇 07-30 14:43

机构:国金证券

评级:买入

目标价:1.6 港元

事件 

 2019 年 7 月 29 日,希望教育集团发布公告,拟收购鹤壁汽车工程职业学院 95%举办者权益(下称目标学院)。 评论  收购总现金代价为 1.6 亿元,高于重置成本。现金代价分期用于替原股东 偿还学院于收购前债务后,剩余部分作为标的权益转让价款,负债超过 1.6 亿元部份由出售方承担。根据公司测算,即使在保守情况下,收购对价仍 低于重置成本。首期集团需向目标学院支付 1400 万元用于偿债,余款将逐 年支付。目标公司 2018 年实现收入 2370 万元,EBITDA 为 400 万元。 

 目标学院位居河南,办学特点鲜明,标志着希望教育集团布局华北地区, 有望发挥集团体系内汽车类专业的协同效应。此次收购为希望教育在华北 地区的首个布局,标志其进入了人口大省河南,目标学院毗邻鹤壁市高铁 站,高铁半小时车程到郑州,地理位置优越。学院成立于 2011 年,是河南 省唯一一所汽车工程类普通高等院校(专科),目前开设了 40 多个专业和 方向,并拥有全国领先的汽车线束、汽车车灯专业,现已形成了极具特色 的汽车专业群,毕业生就业率达 97%以上。希望教育旗下四川希望汽车职业 汽车学院等 4 所学校均开设汽车类专业,有望发挥协同效应。 

 学生人数和学费提升空间大,集团教学管理优势强。目标学院目前在校生 4504 名,约 320 亩土地(划拨) ,已建成房屋 5.6 万平方米,在建校舍 2 万 平方米,建成后届时学校容量可扩大至超过 7000 名学生。鹤壁市人民政府 计划将目标学院打造为该市第一所民办本科学院,后续还将提供 400 亩划 拨用地用于学院升本建设。学院目前收费标准为 5200 元/人,在当地教育 部门备案的收费标准为 1.2 万元/人。我们认为收购后凭借希望教育丰富的 教学管理经验和当地政府的支持,学生人数和学费存在较大提升空间。 

投资建议  高校及职教集团的扩张逻辑依然清晰,可选并购标的丰富。不考虑本次交 易,我们预测 2019/2020 年归母净利润为 4.30/5.62 亿元,对应 PE 为 17/13x。调整非常经常性科目后,2019 年归母净利润为 4.50 亿元,同比增 速为 43%,维持买入评级,目标价 1.6 港元。 

 风险提示:送审稿最终版仍存不确定性,交易尚未完成,招生不及预期等 

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