好未来教育(TAL.US)以利润换增长赢在更好未来维持买入评级目标价43.8美元
机构：招商证券
评级：买入
目标价：43.8美元
■ 20年一季度非GAAP 营业收入超预期，但净利润由于受到投资损失的 影响逊于预期
■ 管理层表明20年二季度市场营销费用仍将处于高位，以推动在线业务快 速发展，20财年按人民币计收入目标增长率为30-40%。短期内不确定性增 加，下调盈利预测及目标价。
■ 我们看到市场营销费用若下降会盈利上升产生杠杆效应，看好公司市场 主导地位及长期增长趋势，仍维持买入评级。
非GAAP营业收入高于彭博一致预测，净利润受投资损失影响 逊于预期 20年一季度收入达703百万美元，同比增长28%，与一致预测持平。非 GAAP营业收入超过一致预测10%，逊于我们预期的2.5%（参见图10）。 经营利润率为11.9%，与我们预期的11.8%持平，高于一致预测10.6%。非 GAAP净利润仅有19百万美元，同比下降77%，主要是由于1Q20近82百万 美元的投资损失导致，去年同期（1Q19）投资损失额仅为1百万美元，导 致利润同比下降81百万美元。将投资损失的影响剔除后，非GAAP净利润 将为101百万美元，同比增长22%。
策略：短期利润适度下行，投资长期增长 在线业务增长依然强劲，学而思网校20年一季度收入同比增长122%，学生 人数同比增长121%，目前占总收入的15%，去年同期占总收入的9%。管 理层预计20年二季度收入增长区间为28%-31%（以美元计价）至约900百 万美元，以人民币计价的增长区间为32-35%。好未来表示其暑期营销活动 于4月持续到7月，这表明20年一季度及20年二季度的销售费用均会抬升， 因此可以预见利润率将在20年二季度持续承压。
预期营销费用更高，略微下调利润率预测，维持买入评级 我们将20财年的预测营业利润率略微从15.1%下调至14.5%，分别下调20 财年及21财年核心净利润4%和7%，主要原因在于：1）市场营销费用更 高；2）在线业务的营收增速高于其他业务，随着在线业务的收入贡献率提 升，其更低的经营利润会影响整体经营利润。我们将目标价从46.1美元下 调至43.8美元，基于未来12个月的盈利预测，及45倍（历史平均水平）市 盈率，目标价隐含52倍2020财年市盈率，及36倍2021财年市盈率。
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