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大和料神华(1088.HK)中期盈利倒退削目标价至16.8港元
格隆汇 07-25 11:49

大和发表研究报告指,中国神华(1088.HK)的股价自今年3月底,已下跌14%,可能是由于集团去年及今年首季的收入都有所下跌,管理层对全年的指引较为保守,以及煤炭价格自3月份开始持续下跌。该行将集团的目标价下调12.5%,由原来的19.2港元降至16.8港元,维持“持有”评级。

大和表示,预期神华上半年盈利将会录得下跌,或受煤炭售价及销量下跌所拖累。撇除与国电集团成立合资公司的11亿元人民币一次性投资收益,中国神华今年首季的经常性收益按年下跌4%,主要由于煤炭的售价及销量下降,而集团的煤炭生产量今年首季基本持平。即使预期2019至2021年的收益将跟随煤炭价格走弱而收缩,但但估计集团仍有290亿元至410亿元人民币的现金流。

该行指,基于煤炭销量较低的预期,该行将集团2019至2020年的每股盈利预测下调7%至9%,认为第二季盈利可能仍会受到煤炭售价及销量下滑影响。而集团计划保持40%稳定派息比率,估计股息收益率为6%,并具有吸引力。

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