新东方(EDU.US)2019年业绩点评业绩超预期经营利润率持续改善给予“买入”评级目标价123美元
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：123美元
◆业绩超预期，经营利润率持续改善
收入增长：4Q19公司实现营收8.43亿美元，同比增长20.2%（按人民币计同比增长28.4%），基本符合我们预期但超过市场预期，主要受益于K-12培训业务同比强劲增长28.5%（按人民币计算增长37.2%）所致。其中，优能中学、泡泡少儿同比分别增长27.2%、31%，按人民币计同比分别增长36%、40%。公司指引1Q20营收10.5-10.76亿美元，并预期按人民币计2020财年营收同比增长30%，公司指引超我们及市场预期。
利润水平：4Q19Non-GAAP经营利润1.03亿美元，同比增长30.3%，超市场预期。经营利润率12.2%，较18年同期提升1个百分点，其中销售费用率较18年同期的14.4%下降近1.8个百分点至12.6%，品牌效应及经营杠杆逐步体现。Non-GAAP归母净利润0.95亿美元，同比增长8.9%，增速低于Non-GAAP经营利润，主要由于1）受教育新政影响，预收学费不得超过3个月，致使账面现金减少，利息收入有所降低。2）有效税率由去年同期20%提升至31%，主要由于部分高新技术企业的税收优惠政策到期，以及4Q19长期投资的公允价值变动损失近3亿美元所致，预计2020财年有效税率将会恢复至20-23%。总体来看，我们认为培训行业的马太效应将逐步显现，公司销售费率逐步下降，经营利润率有望持续提升。
经营层面：公司经营扩张机会稳步推进，4Q19公司在已覆盖城市净增加65个学习中心，并在包头、常熟、榆次新开设3个培训学校，总教室面积同比增长24%，计划2020财年总教室面积扩张20%。受益于学校网点快速扩张，4Q19总学生人次同比增长33.9%至276万人。考虑到K-12培训行业为充分竞争市场，且竞争格局较为分散，我们认为行业存在较大的整合空间，公司凭借多年积累的口碑形象及优质的服务能力，市占率仍有较大提升空间。
◆上调至“买入”评级，上调目标价至123美元。基于本次公司业绩指引超预期，上调公司20-22财年盈利预测。预计2020-2022年收入分别为40.15、50.48、63.10亿美元，同比分别增长30%、26%、25%；Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为5.60、7.34、9.11亿美元，同比分别增长36%、31%、24%。基于绝对估值，上调目标价至123美元，对应20财年35xPE。考虑到公司为培训行业龙头，布局全国且市占率提升空间大，上调至“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：教学质量下滑、教育政策变动、竞争加剧风险。
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