安踏体育(2020.HK)中报预计高成长维持“强烈推荐”评级
机构：方正证券
评级：强烈推荐
【事件】
7月22日，公司发布2019H1盈利预告，预计2019H1经营利润增长不少于50%（按综合基准），归母净利润增长不少于25%（按综合基准）。
【点评】
业绩预告高成长。
（1）营收增长较快。因安踏品牌、非安踏品牌销售强劲，收益增长超过35%。①安踏品牌方面，2018Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4、2019Q1、Q2零售额增速分别达20-25%、低双位数、中双位数、中双位数、低双位数、中双位数，受益线上增长较快（同唯品会恢复合作，预计流水增长25%左右）、安踏儿童较快成长速度（预计流水增长30%左右）以及可口可乐联名款、KT4新品销售较优等因素，2019Q2零售额在Q1增速环比下滑后再次提升。
②非安踏品牌方面，2018Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4、2019Q1、Q2零售额增速分别达80-85%、90-95%、90-95%、80-85%、65-70%、55-60%，非安踏品牌以FILA为主（FILA整体/大货/fusion/kids/线上流水预计分别增长约60%/45%+/约300%/约70%/约80%），高位持续放缓，但仍维持较快增长，2019Q2零售额增长仍超市场预期。
（2）盈利能力提升。因零售占比提升（毛利率高于批发业务）、提前收到政府补助、经营开支比率稳定三个原因，公司经营溢利率提升。预计可能受到Amer一次性收购费用(3000万欧元)及二季度亏损影响，归母净利润增速（25%+）低于经营利润增速（50%+）。
2019公司业绩仍有望维持高成长。①2019营收：预计2019集团零售流水望达15-20%，其中安踏品牌、FILA品牌零售流水望达中双、30%+。②2020流水整体目标：预计所有品牌、安踏、FILA系列流水CAGR分别达15-20%、中双位数、超过30%。③2019门店数预计：安踏（含儿童）门店望达10100-10200家，FILA（含FILAKIDS/FILAFUSION）门店望达1800-1900家，DESCENTE门店望达130-140家，KOLONSPORT门店望达170-180家，KINKOW门店望达90-100家，Sprandi门店望达140-150家。
【投资建议】
预计公司2019/2020/2021年实现归母净利润49.67/59.69/71.65亿元，同比增长21.06%/20.18%/20.02%，对应P/E为27.46/22.85/19.04，维持“强烈推荐”评级。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
