天伦燃气(1600.HK)上半年保持快速增长维持“买入”评级目标价10.54港元
机构：招银国际
评级：买入
目标价：10.54港元
概要。天伦燃气上半年燃气销售量维持快速增长，增速快于全国平均水平。基于上半年公司完成了超过20万煤改气用户接驳，我们预料公司中期业绩将有望发布盈喜。目前公司的估值显著落后于同业平均，随着公司逐步兑现业绩增长目标，我们预料公司将迎来价值重估。
上半年天然气销量同比增长超过20%。根据国家发改委数据，2019年上半年如果天然气消费量增速放缓至10.8%。在全国燃气消费增速放缓的背景下，天伦仍保持较高的燃气销售量增长。管理将较高的增速归因于住宅用户和工商业用户的内生增长，并披露城市燃气销售量（除长输管线和燃气贸易气量以外）增速达约25%。公司维持全年销气量增长25%目标。
煤改气业务仍然是主要的增长动力。根据我们测算，煤改气业务将为天伦燃气2019年带来显著盈利增长，是公司业绩增长的主要驱动力。公司在上半年已完成超过20万户农村煤改气接驳，相信该业务将在下半年显著提速。我们预计全年煤改气实现户数将达66万户，略超过管理层全年指引。我们测算煤改气业务将对公司2019财年贡献净利润人民币4.37亿元。
中期业绩大概率将发布盈喜。根据我们对公司2019财年的盈利预测及上半年的收入及盈利分布预期，我们预料公司上半年将录得全年收入的42.5%，期内将实现净利润人民币3.76亿元，同比增长将超过75.4%。据此，我们认为公司中期业绩将大概率发布盈喜。
股价趋稳。天伦燃气在过去一年间股价呈现显著波动。考虑到
1）公司已成功推进农村煤改气业务，并实现稳健盈利增长，
2）二级市场对于公司的兴趣增加也是券商增加了对公司的覆盖，
3）天伦二级市场的交投日趋活跃，以及
4）公司在上半年成功被纳入港股通，我们预期公司的股价将趋向稳定，市场会将关注点聚焦于公司的业务和盈利增长。
估值显著落后。基于销气毛差预期调整，我们将公司2019-21年每股盈利预测分别下调1.4%/15.2%/13.2%。结合目前燃气分销行业15倍平均前瞻市盈率，以及对煤改气业务工程单独以5.4倍前瞻市盈率估值，我们将天伦燃气的目标价轻微下调0.7%至10.54港元。我们认为公司目前的估值显著落后于同业，维持买入评级。
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