安踏体育(2020.HK)19H1经营利润增速50%+再超预期维持“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
2019H1业绩再超预期。
公司披露盈利预喜公告：预计2019H1经营利润达40.3亿元以上，增速超过50%，归母净利润预计超过24.3亿元，增速25%+。公司业绩超预期的原因在于：1）终端流水的快速增长带来公司2019H1收入实现超过35%的增长，我们认为安踏、Flia增长均好于预期；2）集团毛利率在零售业务贡献比例增加的过程中较同期有所增长；3）经营效率的提升使得公司费用率相对稳定；4）政府补贴带来业绩的增长。
2019H1集团终端销售靓丽，收入增速超过35%。公司2019年H1安踏品牌实现稳定增长，流水实现低双位数增长，Q2环比好于Q1。我们估算：
1）安踏大货流水增长10%左右，考虑大货新增门店少，流水增速主要来自于店效提升；2）安踏儿童流水增长在25%-30%；3）安踏电商增速超过20%。非安踏品牌上半年流水增速60%-65%，其中FILA品牌在去年高基数的基础上继续保持了超过了60%的增速。按此推测：1）在店效增长和次新店贡献为核心驱动下FILA大货H1流水增长45%-50%，FILA儿童增速超过70%，FILAFusion实现4倍左右增长；2）FILA电商维持80%以上的高增速。其他品牌尤其是”迪桑特“品牌趋势良好，实现高速增长。
判断公司运营稳健，库存情况健康。根据多次终端跟踪，我们估算2019H1公司安踏品牌库销比为4左右，FILA品牌为5左右。同时终端折扣率上基本与去年持平（安踏品牌7.2-7.3折，FILA考虑折扣店在内折扣率为7.5折），因此判断公司运营稳健，库存情况健康。
Amer收购对19H1业绩带来一定负面影响，但预计全年仍有望微增净利。
考虑AmerSports主要盈利季在秋冬，历史上AmerSportsQ2多为亏损状态，且此次收购一次性费用计入，我们判断收购事项给集团19年H1业绩带来4-5亿（税前）的负面影响，但全年来看仍有望给集团贡献微量利润。Amer收购事项达成后公司将加强打造始祖鸟、所罗门品牌在中国市场的发展，强化运动细分领域顶级品牌，未来整合后的Amer集团有望推动集团发展进入新阶段。
投资建议。作为本土体育服饰龙头，品牌矩阵完善，主品牌稳健，FILA高速增长。同时公司战略性收购Amer，打开国际化大门。基于上半年运营再超预期，我们认为集团全年业绩有望再提速，暂维持2019/2020/2021年净利润50.2/61.8/73.8亿元的预测（未含Amer并购）。长期集团作为本土体育服饰龙头，品牌矩阵完善，战略性收购Amer后打开国际化大门。现价57.30港币，对应2019年估值27倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：多品牌及海外业务开展不顺；人民币汇率变动带来业绩波动。
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