安踏体育(2020.HK)中报预喜收入利润双超预期维持“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
投资要点
事件：公司公布中报盈利预喜，19H1收入同增超过35%，经营溢利同增超过50%，考虑AMEAS并购影响归母净利同增25%以上。
优秀零售表现助力收入高增：此前公司已公告上半年零售增长情况，为报表收入高增打下基础，其中：安踏品牌零售额增长10%-20%低段，二季度较一季度加速，主要来自于：
1）Q2与唯品会恢复正常合作，加之618天猫平台活动力度较往年更大，线上整体增长25%以上；
2）大货线下表现优秀，增速从Q1的单位数提升到Q2的低双位数增长，明星产品如KT4系列、可口可乐联名系列反响火爆，会员活动也促进了线下门店的引流；
3）安踏儿童增长依然较为强劲，Q2增速仍保持30%。；其他品牌（主要为FILA）零售额上半年增长60%-65%，表现仍然强劲。
其中二季度FILA全品牌增长接近60%，其中大货/KIDS/潮牌/线上分别增长45%/70%/300%/80%，尤其大货在高基数情况下仍然实现高增，体现品牌势能及产品吸引力强，零售折扣方面，考虑奥莱店等折扣渠道达到7.5折，环比持平，库销比亦维持在5的水平，运营稳定。除FILA外，迪桑特、KOLON、Sprandi等零售增长也表现优秀。
经营溢利同增50%以上超市场预期。经营利润率提升，主要来自：
1）零售业务（主要为FILA）占比增加，其毛利率较加盟业务更高，拉高了集团毛利率；
2）提前收到政府补助；
3）经营开支占收入百分比相对稳定。
AMEASQ2开始并表，致19H1归母净利增速慢于经营溢利，7月将召开董事会探讨发展战略发展方向。AMEAS Q2完成收购，收购费用、JVCo层面的贷款利息费用、AMEAS Q2季节性经营亏损（一般二季度会出现经营亏损）也会体现在安踏报表中，带来中报归母净利增长慢于经营溢利。7月AMEAS新董事会将进行关于未来3-5年发展战略的讨论以及其组织架构的梳理，此后有望择机与市场分享发展规划。
盈利预测与投资评级：从12年领先全行业完成零售改革，到FILA的逆势高增成为集团新增长极，再到启动国际化收购，安踏作为体育行业龙头展现出的前瞻性及行动力有目共睹，继续看好公司在运动服饰赛道的领先地位，考虑中报超预期，我们提高盈利预测，预计19/20/21年归母净利同增28%/21%/17%至52.5/63.3/74.1亿元，对应PE26/22/18X，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：零售遇冷导致同店增长不及预期，展店不及预期，AMEAS发展不及预期
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