微盟集团(2013.HK)SaaS业务与智能营销业务两翼齐飞深耕中小企业服务市场给予“增持”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：增持
产业资本加持，营收持续实现高增长，亏损收窄，业务指标表现优异：公司为基于微信生态的中小企业服务第三方服务商，业务主要包括零售SAAS服务业务和精准营销服务。
从经营层面来看，公司收入方面在SAAS业务和智能营销业务双拉动下，持续实现高速增长，其中2018年公司收入达到8.65亿元，同比增长62%，随着公司B端业务体量的增加，业务增长的潜力将逐步释放，预计未来三年内有望持续保持高速增长；公司业绩方面，亏损率有所收窄，亏损主要原因为营销成本过高，15/16/17/18年销售及分销开支与收益的比值分别为91.1%、107.0%、56.0%、52.0%，我们预期随着业务规模的增加销售费用占比下降将迎来盈利拐点。
从主要业务业务指标来看，软件订阅业务付费商户数量从2015年的23859个增加到2018年的64695个，同时单商户的ARPU稳步增长，另外业务流失率逐渐下降，16/17/18年流失率分别为48.7%、27.2%、26.8%；精准营销业务，2018年广告主数量达28589个，增速为61.7%，ARPU为87185元，增速为65.2%，复投率为55.4%，提高4.8个百分点，公司业务结构逐步优化，合作中小企业商户稳步增长，留存率及广告复投率都有所提升。
业务发展—统一定制相结合、拓展落地场景、拓展流量、多元化赋能：在业务层面，公司深耕中小企业服务市场：1、公司实施统一与定制化相结合的服务路线，SAAS产品提供统一的解决方案，PaaS平台提供定制化的服务；2、公司在底层系统的基础上，针对垂直领域提供不同的解决方案，建立起多场景、垂直化的商家服务生态；3、两块业务协同发展，打造一站式的服务体系；4、公司在基于腾讯流量基础，拓展其他平台流量体系，拓展流量渠道。
行业状况—基于腾讯流量体系，去中心化下为B端赋能潜力可期：自14年起由于SaaS业务在降低中小企业存储成本、功能快捷更新等方面的优势，行业迎来快速增长期，我们预计未来有望持续保持较高速增长；另外由于电商的逐步的去中心化，基于微信流量的第三方中小电商服务行业兴起规模持续扩大，公司依据自身产品及大数据积累等方面优势，逐步夯实龙头地位，未来基于腾讯流量体系，在去中心化的趋势下为B端赋能的潜力值得期待。
盈利与投资评级：我们预计2019-2021年营业收入为13.03亿、18.01亿、23.15亿元，归母净利润分别为0.97亿、1.81亿、3.04亿元，对应当前股价PE分别为92、50、30X，看好公司发展前景，给予“增持”评级。
风险提示：对于腾讯平台较为依赖的风险；产品开发及完善滞后市场发展的风险；渠道合作伙伴流失的风险。
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