IGG(0799.HK)核心游戏即见天花板新游推进不达预期维持“买入”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
投资要点
《王国纪元》流水预计缓慢下滑。《王国纪元》目前已经运营超过3年，目前已经进入瓶颈期，预计MAU达1,600万，在出海游戏收入榜单中，今年6月已经从去年下半年的第2名下滑至第4名。我们预计19H1贡献流水超过5,000万美元（下同）/月，较去年同期有所下滑。
《王者决断》增速不达预期。2019年初正式上线，我们预计今年上半年月均流水约200万，与2016年《王国纪元》相比有较大差距。此外，该款游戏暂还没有获取国内版号，缺乏中国玩家的参与。
研发策略转变+新游推广增多致费用率上升，预计利润率下滑。今年，公司注重研发周期管理，预计19H1已还将增加200名研发人员。此外由于多款新游的上线，也加大了销售费用。预计2019H1研发费用率将达12%，销售费用率超26%，预计今年净利率将下滑5个点。
游戏储备丰厚，新作放量，下半年值得期待。今年以来，公司持续推出了多类型游戏，从4月至今，公司发布节奏也在加速，SeaFortress、BraveConquest、《城堡争霸：曙光大陆》等均已发布，公司正在不断优化产品结构，除了SLG也发布了沙盒、模拟经营、休闲类游戏。但由于多款游戏于上半年末发布，流水暂无较大体现，我们预计H2将贡献增量收入。
投资建议：由于核心游戏生命周期已超3年，叠加新游推进不及预期，我们将19/20年的收入由8.21/8.62亿下调至7.3/7.67亿（本报告中，《王国纪元》收入采用中性预测），归母净利润由2/2.14亿下调至1.49/1.67亿，目标价从13.26港币下调至10.12港元，对应19年11xPE，考虑到公司目前估值较低，并期待下半年的新游贡献，我们维持“买入”评级，建议投资者积极关注。
风险提示：全球游戏市场增速不及预期；核心游戏《王国纪元》流水增速不及预期；新游戏推出不及预期
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