安踏体育(2020.HK)深度跟踪报告莫听穿林打叶何妨吟啸徐行维持“买入”评级
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：无
核心观点
公司二季度经营表现优秀，主品牌/非安踏品牌增长中双位数/55%-60%，产品研发能力持续显著提升，2017年-2019年产品亮眼。同时，做空机构质疑有失偏颇，看好公司绝对龙头实力和长期稳健成长，维持“买入”评级。
▍2019Q2经营数据公布，主品牌增长提速，非安踏品牌延续高增。（1）2019Q2安踏品牌实现中双位数增长，拆分来看，安踏品牌中成人线下实现低双位数增长、儿童线下+30%，电商+25%（同唯品会谈判完成+618带动），线下大货和儿童库销比分别为4和5，折扣控制良好。（2）非安踏品牌实现55%-60%增长、继续维持较高增长，FILA流水+接近60%，去年新增门店&老店店效共同推动，库存控制良好、库销比5左右。其中Classic线下增长45%以上，Fushion+300%，kids增长+70%，电商+80%。此外，迪桑特和Kolon皆实现较快增长。结合二季度经营数据，我们预计考虑Amer并表后公司2019H1备考净利润同增20%+，不考虑Amer并表因素预计净利润同增40%+。
▍我们看到了什么变化？产品打造与品牌调性的全面升级。时尚易变，但功能性永恒，运动产品最核心竞争力为围绕功能性的产品研发和打造能力。安踏在过去十年中已经在运营方面建立起深厚的壁垒，体现在极强的终端零售管理能力和供应链把控能力。而在最近2-3年，安踏的产品和品牌端正迎来显著改善和提升。具体看，①功能性和外观设计共同提升。近年来搭载核心科技的高性价比产品频现：2017年Alive-foam、KT3/老爹鞋亮相；2018年KT4篮球鞋，A-FLASHFOAM、A-livezone新科技收获赞誉，KT4/NASA/C202亮点频现；2019年和海沃德联名款望推出市场。②产品推出的速度&深度&广度三方面皆在强化。围绕篮球/综训/跑步/生活/足球等系列，实现“月月有新”，目前每年服饰类SKU3000+，鞋子2000+，同时价格段更宽，匹配日益扩张的全新门店和区域。③从斯科拉到加内特，再到汤普森和海沃德，代言人不断升级，衍生活动和产品愈加丰富。
▍本次被浑水做空的一些思考。（1）经销商：关系清晰，独立经营，且具备一定盈利能力。公司对分销商背景严格筛选，合作长久、关系稳定，同时也始终坚持对终端零售的强管控。（2）锋线的交易：出于经营战略的合理调整。锋线公司始终经营亏损，且与公司自营品牌的战略相悖，出售其为战略调整、聚焦主业的合理举措。（3）FILA：由于历史关系，尚有小部分加盟商存在，预计未来会逐渐收回直营。
▍风险因素：收购AmerSports整合效果存不确定性；消费景气下行超预期。
▍投资建议：维持2019/2020/2021年EPS预测1.84/2.20/2.57元（对应2.15/2.57/3.01港元），维持“买入”评级，对应2019年25倍PE。
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