中烟香港(6055.HK)中小盘首次覆盖报告烟草专卖制度铸就护城河HNB新型烟草放量可期首次覆盖给予“增持”评级目标价21.51元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：21.51元
本报告导读： 公司拥有烟草类产品进出口独家经营权，在上下游产业链中具备强议价能力，通过 HNB 新型烟草领域的切入实现自我变革，借助壁垒寻求新增长极，目标价 21.51元。
摘要：
首次覆盖给予“增持”评级，目标价 21.51元。公司作为中烟旗下唯 一的国际业务平台，拥有烟草类产品进出口的独家经营权，在所从事 业务领域没有任何竞争对手，充分受益于中烟整合海外资源及大力推 广新型烟草制品的趋势。考虑到标的具备高度稀缺性、独家经营地位 带来高议价能力、HNB 新型烟草制品放量可期，预计 2019-2021 年营 业收入分别为 76.00、78.26、80.52 亿港元，归母净利润 3.44、3.62、 3.80 亿港元，对应 EPS0.52、0.54、0.57 港元。给予目标价 21.51元， 对应 2019 年 41PE 倍，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。
东南亚港澳台市场需求稳定，HNB新型烟草制品加速落地。免税中国品牌卷烟的全球需求量以5.6%的CAGR稳步增长，公司作为卷烟特定地区的独家营运实体充分受益。同时，公司2018年5月开始从事新型烟草业务，仅8个月时间即实现销售加热棒5485万只（包含MC、娇子、COO及MU+四款产品）、贡献1689万港元收入增量，未来随着各省中烟公司HNB产品加速落地，公司业务有望超预期。
烟草专卖制度构筑高壁垒和竞争优势，财务指标表现良好。我们认为公司竞争优势体现在以下四个维度：①经营层面：独特的经营模式决定了较为稳定的毛利率，无需营销和研发投入即可维持市场竞争力，业务垄断性极强；②管理层面：存货和应收账款周转率加快反映管理效率改善，资产模式极轻且变现能力强，坏账风险几乎为零；③财务层面：绝大多数负债来自占用上游应付款项及票据，无任何短期借款和长期借款，财务风险可控、资金成本较低；④业绩层面：主营业务突出且净利润含金量高，股东权益报酬率（摊薄）达到45%，属于绩优范畴。不足之处在于，公司业绩因重组及政策变动出现较大波动、关联关系占比高导致对中烟集团严重依赖、过往历史暂未分红等。
催化剂：中烟加速推出新型烟草制品并通过公司向海外出售
风险提示：对中烟集团依赖的风险；全球控烟运动带来的消费端压力
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