康师傅控股(0322.HK)中国方便面和饮料王者龙头地位稳固首次覆盖给予“审慎增持”评级目标价15.21港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：15.21港元
投资要点
康师傅控股是中国方便面和饮料行业龙头，具备全行业最强的渠道力，品牌形象深入人心。看好方便面高端化战略，饮料资产活化策略带动利润率提升；随着产品升级、新兴品类增长和品牌持续投入，有望持续引领行业增长，保持稳固的龙头地位。
⚫首次覆盖给予“审慎增持”评级，目标价15.21港元：我们预计公司2019-2021年EPS分别为0.47/0.50/0.54元，同比6.3%/6.5%/8.0%。根据DCF模型，给予目标价15.21港元，相比现价有17.8%的涨幅，对应2019/2020年EV/EBITDA为10.2x/9.6x。虽然公司短期战略仍聚焦市占率提升，一定程度上影响盈利性，但考虑到成本端利好、减税降费、资产处置收益及当前估值低、高股息率等因素，给予公司“审慎增持”评级。
⚫持续贯彻通路精耕，渠道壁垒强。康师傅拥有28,415个经销商和140,779个直营零售商，数量在快消品行业里最多。通过不断改革提升，建立了完善的渠道管理机制和销售团队，实现对经销商的管理、辅导、培训，渠道控制力强，竞争对手难以复制。渠道壁垒使其具备极快的新品铺货和市场反馈速度，营运效率、盈利能力（ROE）领先行业。
⚫产品线齐全，产品升级+新兴品类+整合外部资源驱动增长。康师傅产品覆盖全品类全价格带，在方便面、即饮茶、蛋酥卷市占率稳居市场第一；碳酸饮料市占率第二；其他品类产品亦处于市场领先地位。公司抓住方便面高端化趋势，持续推出高端产品，提升板块利润率。凭借渠道优势，我们看好公司的高端产品发展。此外公司拥有百事、星巴克、佳得乐、阿华田等稀缺优质的外部品牌矩阵，有望在碳酸饮料和即饮咖啡、运动饮料等新兴品类中获得超行业增速的高增长。
⚫品牌形象深入人心。据2018年凯度中国品牌足迹报告，公司为排名第三的快消品牌，触及消费者9.16亿人，渗透率达83%；据Chnbrand，公司方便面和茶饮料品牌力第一。2019年，康师傅绿茶、奶茶分别启用全新代言人易烊千玺和火箭少女101，主动拥抱粉丝经济和新媒体，强化品牌形象。
⚫高股息，现金流稳定提升。公司2018年经营性现金流69.7亿元，期末现金138.4亿元，YOY+34.6%。2018年康师傅分红率100%，股息率3.88%，高于同业（统一、日清股息率分别为2.94%、1.55%）。
风险提示：原材料成本显著上升；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧；需求疲软
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