中烟香港(6055.HK)专营渠道构筑壁垒新型烟草助力成长首次覆盖暂不给予评级
机构:广发证券
烟草进出口独家经营,国家政策构建垄断优势
2018 年中国烟草总公司印发 60 号文指定中烟香港为中国烟草行业的 国际业务拓展平台,公司独家经营烟叶类产品进口、烟叶类产品出口、卷 烟出口及新型烟草制品出口四大业务。
IPO 搭建资本运作平台,布局海内外烟草品牌
国内市场饱和背景下,增强国际竞争力,向外寻找空间成为新方向。 在中国烟草行业“统一领导、垂直管理、专卖专营”的管理体制下,中烟 香港作为中烟集团旗下主营烟草进出口贸易的平台公司,上市后可通过打 入国际市场,为中国烟草的市场化竞争铺路。横向纵向多方位发力,聚焦 “一带一路”地区等外部烟草市场,加快推动中国烟草“走出去”。
全球新型烟草日渐风靡,新型烟草出口业务有望增长
新型烟草大幅降低健康危害,且在口感和价格上都具备对传统烟草的 替代性,成为市场新潮流。国内中烟公司(如云南中烟 MC 系列加热不燃 烧产品等)纷纷推出产品试销海外,参与国际舞台,中烟香港借助资本平 台拓宽多元化销售渠道,分享全球新型烟草成长红利。
盈利预测与投资建议
中烟香港上市后可充分发挥资本运作平台作用,聚焦“一带一路”地 区等外部烟草市场,增强中国烟草的全球竞争力,公司整体业绩有望稳步 增长。预计公司 2019-2021 年营业收入分别为 75.07、79.74、83.71 亿港 元,归母净利润 2.79、3.01、3.19 亿港元,首次覆盖暂不给予评级。
风险提示
国家烟草专卖制度变动;全球控烟行动加剧;新型烟草相关政策具有 不确定性;公司收入受季节波动影响;地区政治事件及变动。

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