猫眼娱乐(1896.HK)跟踪报告战略新升级布局全文娱维持“买入”评级目标价20.5港元
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：20.5 港元
◆事件：公司发布猫眼全文娱战略“猫爪模型；猫眼与腾讯的“腾猫联 盟”正式启动，强化文娱内容服务生态。
◆点评： “猫爪模型”以票务、产品、数据、营销及资金五大平台布局全文娱 产业链，为公司战略升级之举。猫眼拥有票务业务现金牛、丰富的数据和 成熟的产品及媒体矩阵，本次战略升级意在突破电影票务营收天花板，将 业务空间拓展至万亿级别的中国娱乐市场。
19H1 全国观影人次下滑或拖累公司全年电影出票量；上半年现场娱 乐票务 GMV 同比增长 50%，验证票务业务“高频带低频”逻辑。1）上 半年全国观影人次 8.08 亿人（YoY -10.3%），公司电影票务市占率稳定， 我们下调全年出票量假设；2）上半年公司现场娱乐业务 GMV 同比增长 50%；执行总代数 107 场，遍布 48 座城市。猫眼的下沉市场流量经营相 比大麦有一定优势，且票务“高频带动低频”正在被业务数据验证。
2019 公司在电影与电视剧出品业务上表现亮眼。电影方面，公司 19 年预计将主控出品 18 部，H1 已有 7 部（18 全年 7 部）；联合出品 13 部， H1 已有 7 部（18 全年 7 部）。电视剧方面，公司 19 年已出品 4 部（18 年全年 2 部），包括暑期精品剧集《长安十二时辰》（豆瓣评分 8.6）。
“全文娱战略”和“腾猫联盟”都是猫眼参与腾讯“内部赛马”的进 取之举。腾讯在大文娱领域的内部赛马远未到终局，猫眼此次战略升级对 标阿里大文娱；只有在自身业务上不断验证成长性，才能有望争取到腾讯 后续的资源与流量倾斜（如历史上腾讯支持微影、格瓦拉、猫眼合并）。
◆盈利预测、投资评级与估值： 19H1 国内整体观影人次下滑将对公司票务、电商业务短期产生一定 影响，中长期看好公司内容服务生态，对标阿里影业。下调公司 2019-2021 年净利润（GAAP）至 6.97/9.48/11.60 亿元，EPS 0.62/0.84/1.03 元；下 调目标价至 20.5 港币/股，维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：客户流失风险、合作不确定风险、业务拓展不及预期
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