安踏体育(2020.HK)主品牌店效提升Fila保持高增长维持“买入”评级
机构：中泰证券
评级：买入
目标价：无
投资要点
公司发布 2019 二季度运营表现，期内安踏品牌零售额实现 10%~20%的中段增 长，其他品牌实现同比 55%~60%的增长。从上半年的整体情况看，安踏品牌实 现同比 10~20%的低段增长，其他品牌录得 60%~65%的增幅。
店效提升及电商发力，主品牌 Q2 销售增长环比提速。分渠道看，1）线下：受 益于店效提升，成人装零售额同比低双位数增长，相比 18Q4、19Q1 的高单位 数增长有所提速。具体来看，产品价格保持稳定，而爆款的推出(如可口可乐 联名款、KT 系列)以及门店会员的引流使销量得以较快增长。预计下半年门店 数量稳定在 7300 家左右，渠道结构调整将带动店效持续提升。童装方面，Q2 销售额仍保持 30%的较高增长，预计全年新开 200 家门店至 2950 家左右。2） 线上：电商流水同增 25%，一方面由于 618 活动促销刺激消费需求，另一方面 受益于公司与唯品会的顺利合作，增速较 19Q1 的中双位数提升明显。整体来 看，主品牌全年或将保持中双位数增长。从运营情况看，Q2 折扣率与 Q1 基本 持平，成人装为 73 折，童装 7 折左右。同时，渠道库存健康，成人装/童装库 销比分别为 4/5。
Q2 非安踏品牌在高基数背景下保持高增长。分品牌看，Descente、Kolon、Sp randi、Kingkow 表现良好。Fila 同增 60%，增速环比 Q1(70%)略有放缓，主要 是受去年同期高基数的影响。其中 Fila classic/fusion/kids/电商/海外业务 增速分别为 45%/300%/70%/80%/80%，其产品持续热销，库销比（5）和折扣率 （线下 7.5 折，线上 6 折）均维持 Q1 水平。
Amer sports 并表，短期费用提升。Amer sports 于 19Q2 并表，将产生一次 性收购及财务费用共计约 3000 万欧元。同时由于 Amer Sports 产品本身季节 性较强，二季度存在常规性亏损，预计会对公司上半年利润产生一定影响。长 期来看，将丰富公司品牌矩阵，并充分发挥品牌及渠道协同效应，开启公司全 球化布局。7 月公司将召开懂事会，讨论其战略发展规划。
盈利预测与投资建议：公司在单聚焦、多品牌、全渠道战略下，主品牌稳健发 展，Fila 快速增长，其他品牌有望陆续发力，公司作为中国运动第一品牌的地 位稳固。同时通过并购 Amer sports，为公司国际化打下基础。预计 2019/20/ 21 年净利润为 51.02/60.92/70.28 亿元，分别同增 24.35%/19.41%/15.37%， 对应 EPS 分别为 1.89/2.26/2.60 元，现价对应 PE23/19/17 倍，维持“买入” 评级。
风险因素：宏观经济不景气导致终端销售下滑；主品牌增长低于预期；新品牌 门店扩张进展低于预期。
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