海螺创业(00586.HK)从影子股到环保新龙头危废业务护城河宽广给予“买入”评级目标价34.80港元
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：34.80港元
危废处置成本优势突出且可持续，为公司塑造宽广竞争护城河；垃圾发电差异化竞争寻求市场突破，项目回报突出；盈利结构在深刻变化，正推动公司从影子股向环保股转变。分部加总得出目标价为34.80港元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
▍水泥窑协同领军企业，固废处置后起之秀。公司2013年底在港交所上市，环保领域业务近年发展迅速，在水泥窑协同处置固废&危废已成功树立行业龙头地位。截止2018年底，公司处理一般工业固废&危废的能力达到104.5万吨/年。公司是海螺集团第二大股东，持股49%，助公司持续分享海螺水泥的优异业绩。
▍公司危废处置的护城河宽广，业务拓展驶入快车道。公司可视为海螺集团员工持股平台，独享海螺水泥生产网络进行协同业务布局，和中国建材合作进一步强化公司资源优势。公司处置危废时支付的租金目前仅约50元/吨，为稀缺性支付的溢价远低于竞争对手，危废处置成本优势突出，树立宽广护城河。预计公司2019~2021年危废处置产能将增至190/390/540万吨/年，拓展迅速，龙头快速成型。
▍环保主业渐成型，影子股身份正在摆脱。预计环保主业在公司税前利润的占比将自2018年的16%提升至2021年的42%。环保主业对公司影响明显加深，投资收益占比正在下降。考虑到盈利结构深刻变化，公司将逐步摆脱海螺水泥影子股的市场印象，从周期属性转为环保成长股属性，最终推动公司估值扩张和走出独立行情。
▍风险因素：项目推进不及预期；政府支付能力下降；水泥价格大幅波动。
▍投资建议：我们预计2019~2021年EPS为3.40/3.99/4.62元人民币，对应2019~2021年P/E为7/6/5倍。我们采用分部加总法进行估值，对于间接所持海螺水泥股权，我们按照所对应市值给予30%折扣；环保分部参考行业及公司历史估值，给予15倍2020年P/E，加总得出目标价34.80港元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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