《大行报告》大摩重予紫金(02899.HK)「增持」评级目标价3.9元
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,指紫金矿业(02899.HK)在该行两种看好的金属「金」及「铜」都有良好定位。该行料其2019至2021年盈利年均复合增长14%,将受到未来两年上线的强劲新项目渠道所支持。该行重予紫金「增持」评级,目标价3.9元。
报告称,紫金现价相当於明年预测市盈率12.8倍,及预测市帐率1.6倍,较2007年以来历史平均值低一个标准差。考虑其盈利状况已改善,大摩认为紫金被低估。该行料紫金2019至2021年各年每股盈测分别21分、23分及27分人民币。
大摩料紫金未来两年强劲的项目资源及渠道,可支持其受惠於金及铜价的理想势头。该行料经过两年倒退後,今年紫金的黄金生产可反弹至39.7吨。计及新收购的RTB BOR、Nevsun Resources及旗舰项目Kamoa,该行料紫金的铜产量在今明两年分别按年升48%及88%,至分别36.7万吨及68.9万吨,超越该行对江铜(00358.HK)20.8万吨的预测。
报告补充,金及铜料占紫金今年毛利分别30%及32%,考虑美联储鸽派立场、美汇转弱及经济前景不确定,料金价可跑赢大市。大摩亦看好铜价,指其供求关系仍紧张。计及该行经济师对人民币走弱的预测,该行料紫金今年下半年金及铜平均销售价格分别按半年升12%及3%。
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