《大行报告》中金降金蝶国际(00268.HK)目标价至7元评级「中性」
中金发表报告表示,预期金蝶国际(00268.HK)上半年收入将升18.6%至15亿元人民币(下同),而纯利则料跌31.1%至1.17亿元,而公司刊发盈警预计上半年收入将按年增15-20%,惟受云业务投资拖累盈利将跌30-40%。
在传统业务方面,中金估计金蝶国际上半年收入将为14.7亿至15.3亿元,而云收入则为5.33亿至5.68亿元,而去年同期则为3.55亿元,反映传统ERP业务收入按年持平,早前该行亦已警告受经济增长放慢影响,料ERP业务增长有机会减弱。此外,公司正将部分传统ERP客户转至云产品,该行估计相关措施可带动云业务今年增长50-60%。
但中金认为,云业务增长强劲会为利润带来压力,估算金蝶国际云服务收入上半年将按年增长59%至5.63亿元,惟相关业务仍处亏损状态,管理层亦曾指出相关业务2020年前不能扭亏,故认为整体而言上半年盈利将现较大跌幅,估计将按年跌31%至1.17亿元,而净利润率则收窄5.6个百分点至7.7%,利润压力在今年亦将持续。
该行将公司2019及2020年收入预测分别下调3.5%及5.9%至34亿元及40亿元,盈利预测则分别削30%及1.6%至3.1亿元及5.15亿元,主要反映云业务投资的利润压力,重申「中性」评级,目标价削22%至7元,此按综合方式作估值。(el/w) ~
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