GTJA：Maintained “BUY” rating on Sinic Holdings (2103.HK), with target price HK4.8
Solid Fundamentals With Disciplined Landbanking, "Buy"
GTJA updated its research report on Sinic Holdings on 3 September, Maintained “BUY” rating on Sinic Holdings(2103.HK), with target price HK4.8. Please see the following summary for details:
● 1H2021 results were largely in line with expectations. Sinic recorded strong revenue growth at 28.9% YoY in 1H2021. Despite a notable decline in GPM (down by 8.5 ppts YoY, at 21.7%), Sinic’s 1H2021 underlying shareholder’s profit still delivered solid growth of 7.4% YoY to RMB730 mn, largely underpinned by significant tax decline (-27.4% YoY). GTJA expect Sinic to deliver solid earnings growth in the next few years, based on its ample attri. unbooked sales of RMB60 bn and stable GPM outlook at 22% level.
● Balance sheet further strengthened. Thanks to its disciplined land acquisitions in 1H2021 (attri. land costs RMB2.2 bn, 8% of attri. sales in 1H2021), GTJA saw significant improvement in the Company’s net gearing ratio, which declined by 13.1 ppts to 50.5% by mid-2021 from that of 63.6% by end-2020. Also, Sinic’s cash balance also increased by 10.3% to RMB19.3 bn, with total debt having slightly declined by 0.3% to RMB29.6 bn. Guided by the management, Sinic is going to be in the green camp under the "three red lines" within one year.
● Prudent land acquisitions to protect margin; land-bank life to stay within 2.5-3.0 years. With a prudent attitude, in 1H2021, Sinic only acquired 5 land parcels, with average land cost at RMB4,245/sq.m. Currently, Sinic’s attri. land bank (saleable resources of RMB210 bn) is sufficient for sales in 2.5 years. The company targets to maintain a 2.5-3.0 years land bank life, but with focus on protecting its margin.
● "Buy" with TP at HK$4.80. GTJA are encouraged to see that Sinic maintained solid fundamentals amid the current stringent policy environment. GTJA maintain "Buy" with TP still at HK$4.80. Their target price implies 7.1x 2021F underlying PER and 1.2x 2021F PBR. Key risks include: 1) sales slowdown; 2) difficulties in acquiring lands at comfortable margin; and 3) refinancing hurdles.
新力控股(2103.HK)获国泰君安维持“买入”评级，目标价HK$4.8
基本面稳健以及土地获取审慎，“买入”
9月3日，国泰君安更新了对新力控股的研究报吿，新力控股(2103.HK)获国泰君安维持“买入”评级，目标价HK$4.8。有关详细信息，请参阅以下摘要：
● 2021年上半年业绩大致符合预期。在今年上半年，新力控股集团录得强劲收入增长，同比增28.9%。尽管毛利率大幅下跌(同比下跌8.5个百分点，至21.7%)，但是受税费显著改善(同比跌27.4%)支撑，新力2021年中期核心股东净利润仍然录得稳健的同比7.4%的增长至人民币7.3亿元。基于其充足的权益已售未结人民币600亿元，以及稳定的22%毛利率前景，国泰君安预计新力将在未来几年录得稳健的利润增长。
● 资产负债表进一步加强。得益于今年上半年谨慎的土地获取(权益土地成本人民币22亿元，占上半年权益销售8%)，国泰君安看到公司净负债率显著改善，从2020年底的63.6%下跌13.1个百分点至今年中期的50.5%。另外，新力现金水平也增加10.3%至人民币193亿元，总负债略降0.3%至人民币296亿元。管理层指引，新力将有望在一年内进入“三条红线”的绿档。
● 谨慎购地以保利润率，土地周期保持2.5-3.0年时间。基于谨慎的态度，新力2021年上半年仅获取5块土地，平均土地价格为人民币4,245元每平方米。目前，新力的权益土地储备(货值人民币2,100亿元)足够未来2.5年销售。公司目标保持2.5-3.0年的土地销售周期，但重点会放在保护利润率上。
● “买入”评级，目标价4.80港元。国泰君安欣然看到新力在当前严苛政策环境下，保持基本面稳健。国泰君安维持“买入”评级，目标价仍为4.80港元，对应2021年核心市盈率7.1倍，2021年市净率1.2倍。
BofA：OW SINHLD 9.5 '21/ 8.5 '22/ 10.5 '22 on favorable risk-reward driven
BofA updated its research report on Sinic Holdings on 31 August. Please see the following summary for details:
Improved debt/ cap, net gearing & net leverage
Compared to end-FY20, SINHLD’s total cash increased 10% to RMB19.3bn while total debt remained largely unchanged at RMB29.6bn. Net debt dropped 16% HoH to RMB10.2bn while total equity grew 6% HoH to RMB20.2bn. Debt/ cap improved 2ppt HoH to 59% and net debt/ equity improved 13ppt HoH to 51%. Debt/ LTM EBITDA increased 0.4x HoH to 5.9x whereas net debt/ LTM EBITDA improved 0.2x HoH to 2.0x. Total cash/ short-term debt improved 0.2x HoH to 1.4x.
Refinancing need in onshore and offshore bond markets
Since end-1H21, SINHLD’s net onshore bond issuance (excluding ABS) has amounted to RMB0.5bn while its net offshore bond redemption has totaled US$5mn. As for its refinancing need in the rest of 2021, it has no bonds due/ puttable in the onshore market (excluding ABS) while it has US$246mn bonds to mature in the offshore market. BofA estimate its pro-forma 1H21 total cash to cover 4.3x and 3.6x its bonds (excluding ABS) maturing/ puttable until end-’22 and end-’23, respectively.
BofA have an Overweight recommendation on SINHLD 9.5 '21/ 8.5 '22/ 10.5 '22 on favorable risk-reward driven by (1) good and sufficient land bank and (2) attractive yield pickup over similarly maturing Chinese HY property bonds.
美银证券：基于有利的风险回报建议增持新力全部三只美元债券
美林证券于8月31日更新了对新力控股的研究报吿。有关详细信息，请参阅以下摘要：
改善债务/上限、净负债率和净杠杆率
与2020年底相比，SINHLD的现金总额增加10%至人民币193亿元，而债务总额则基本保持不变，为人民币296亿元。净负债环比下降16%至102亿元人民币，而总权益环比增长6%至202亿元人民币。债务/资本环比提高2个百分点至59%，净债务/权益环比提高13个百分点至51%。债务/过去12个月EBITDA环比增长0.4倍至5.9倍，而净债务/过去12个月EBITDA环比提高0.2倍至2.0倍。总现金/短债环比提高0.2倍至1.4倍。
在岸和离岸债券市场的再融资需求
自1H21结束以来，SINHLD的境内债券净发行量(不包括ABS)已达到5亿元人民币，而其境外债券净赎回总额为500万美元。至于其2021年剩余时间的再融资需求，它没有在岸市场(不包括ABS)到期/可回售的债券，而在离岸市场有2.46亿美元的债券到期。美林证券估计其1H21预估总现金将分别覆盖其到期/可回售债券(不包括ABS)的4.3倍和3.6倍，直至22年底和23年底。
美林证券对SINHL全部三只美元债券评级为“买入”，原因是(1)良好且充足的土地储备和(2)相对于类似到期的中国高收益房地产债券具有吸引力的收益率回升。
