《大行》匯豐:香港房地產市場已穩步改善 恆基地產(00012.HK)或成為關鍵受益者之一
匯豐環球研究報告指出,香港樓市復已穩步改善,雖然幅度低於預期,但交易量穩步改善。根據當前運行速度,一手成交量可能超出該行的預期,按年增長13%至1.9萬個單位,達到5年高位。而最近美聯儲局降息,較低的有效按揭利率從持有成本角度或有助房市。
該行指,其經濟學家預測美聯儲局將有另外兩次降息,分別是2025年12月和2026年3月,各25個基點,這應有利於本港樓市市場復甦。雖然近期完成的庫存,或對房地產開發商構成一些挑戰,預期相關公司將逐漸轉移銷售策略,將重點平衡置於成交量和利潤率,而非僅僅去槓桿。上述措施或應轉化為2026至2027年預測更高的盈利。
匯豐研究強調未來存三個機會,包括:(機會1)具良好股息收益率的落後股。隨著預期降息週期持續,該行看到具良好股息收益率(約7%)和改善基本面的公司機會,恆基地產(00012.HK)和長和(00001.HK)。恆基地產可能成為房市復甦週期的關鍵受益者之一(「買入」評級及目標價34.2元,預測明年股息回報6.6厘,股價較每股資產淨值折讓48%),而該行看到長和的盈利和股息前景改善(「買入」評級及目標價60元,預測明年股息回報6.7厘,股價較每股資產淨值折讓64%)。
(機會2)在該行看來,資本回收行動中,應有助公司從純資產比率角度解鎖價值。希慎興業(00014.HK)透過出售Bamboo Grove 的加速資本回收,可能提供更好的股息確定性,予希慎「買入」評級及目標價18.6元。
(機會3)具新成長動能的股票,太古地產(01972.HK)的幾個商業項目應從2026年起分階段開業,為其租金收入增長奠定良好基礎,予太古「買入」評級及目標價23.9元。另一方面,恆隆地產(00101.HK)在杭州Westlake66項目竣工後,可能看到新的租金收入來源,予「買入」評級及目標價9.2元。
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