"Dahang" Huiyan maintains an optimistic attitude towards the mainland real estate market and is optimistic about Rundi (01109.HK) New City Development (01030.HK)
The HSBC research report pointed out that the fundamentals of the mainland real estate market have changed positively, but property prices are still under pressure and sales in the fourth quarter will face high base challenges. The bank remains optimistic about the industry's outlook, as first-half results reflect that some developers 'profit margins have recovered earlier than expected and management has given more positive performance guidance. Leading developers are expected to launch high-end land projects acquired earlier this year to cash in.
At the same time, the bank noted a significant improvement in market sentiment, with the market becoming willing to explore more highly volatile shares in addition to large developers. However, in the absence of an obvious catalyst, the bank expects industry stock prices to take on a rampage in the short term.
As for developers in financial difficulties, the results in the first half of the year were generally in line with expectations. They all faced falling revenue, depressed profit margins and inventory impairment, but home delivery continued to advance. The bank expects that if debt restructuring is completed, the balance sheets and liquidity positions of private developers that have defaulted such as Agile (03383.HK), Xuhui Holdings (00884.HK), Country Garden (02007.HK) and Shimao Group (00813.HK) will improve significantly.
In terms of shares, the bank is optimistic about China Resources Land (01109.HK) and Xincheng Development (01030.HK), whose realizable assets are expected to outperform the retail market; target prices are 43 yuan and 3.3 yuan respectively, and both are rated "buy". In addition, C-REITs also have the potential to unleash the value of investment properties. At the same time, the bank is optimistic about CCB International Group (01908.HK) because of its competitive advantage in high-end projects, its relatively young land reserve, a target price of 21.7 yuan, and a "buy" rating.
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