《大行》摩通:蘋果(AAPL.US)iPhone 17初步銷情超預期 估可摺疊iPhone於2027財年帶來更強升級週期
摩根大通發表報告表示,從蘋果公司(AAPL.US)旗下iPhone 17系列上市初期的良好需求跡象,該行上調對其對2026財年(2025年10月至2026年9月)的出貨量預期,同時納入將於2026年秋季推出的可摺疊iPhone帶來的出貨與定價順風效應,推動2027財年(2026年10月至2027年9月)收入與盈利預期上修。
該行指,iPhone 17系列已在數日前開售(9月12日開始預售),早期需求跡象顯示,本次週期的出貨量不僅有望超過該行最初預期(當時考慮到 iPhone 16 系列出現提前消費後的消化壓力),甚至有望按年超越iPhone 16系列。受益於改善的出貨前景,該行目前預測 2026財年iPhone出貨量為2.36億部,按年微增 2%,結合各有利因素,該行認為這將支撐iPhone收入錄得中至高個位數(mid- to high-single digit)增長。
摩通預計隨著可摺疊iPhone的推出,2027財年升級週期將更為強勁,加上定價順風加速,將為iPhone帶來低雙位數(low double-digit)的收入增長。該行預計公司總體收入增長將與iPhone收入同步,2026財年收入增長7%(與2025財年相近),2027財年則增長10%。結合iPhone收入順風、更有信心的毛利率提升(受惠於更有利的關稅環境)、以及服務業務的韌性與監管/法律風險下降,該行預測未來幾年的毛利將明顯上升。
摩通將蘋果公司至2026年12月的目標價,由255美元上調至280美元,相當預測2027財年綜合市盈率29倍,基於更高的盈利預測。
該行料,iPhone 18將透過可摺疊機型帶動新一輪升級週期,但由於定價高昂,該行對出貨量仍持保守態度,同時上調了 iPhone 18出貨週期的預測,預測2027財年iPhone 18系列總出貨量為1.75億部(相比2026財年iPhone 17系列的1.64億部)。
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