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《大行》大摩:A股市場成交額高企帶動中資券商盈測上調
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,A股市場日均成交額(ADT)持續高企,目前對全年ADT預測更具信心,將2025年ADT預測上調53%至1.53萬億元人民幣,並預測2026及2027年ADT將保持每年5%至6%的按年增長,相應將所覆蓋中資券商2025至2027年各年盈利預測平均上調25%、23%及20%,相信交投增加可帶動經紀傭金、保證金利息及經營槓桿提升,市場流動性充裕將支持更多融資活動,預料利好中金公司(03908.HK)、中信證券(06030.HK)及廣發證券(01776.HK)等擁有強勁承銷、交易及資產管理業務的券商。 該行預期券商板塊平均股本回報率(ROE)將於2026年反彈至9%,其中,中信證券及中金公司的ROE分別有望達10.7%及9.4%,目前預測中金、廣發及中信證券的今年投資收入分別增長20%、21%及11%,而東方財富(300059.SZ)及招商證券(06099.HK)今年投資收入則可能錄得下跌。
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