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《大行》瑞銀:工業金屬整體前景改善 銅和鋁中期基本面仍然吸引
瑞銀髮表報告指,工業金屬價格受到正面的宏觀經濟所支持,包括美國減息和美元走弱、對AI貿易的信心、中國反內卷政策及潛在更多中國刺激政策。宏觀經濟得到改善,支持資金流向礦業股。該行認爲,工業金屬的整體前景正在改善,短期需求大幅放緩的風險正在減弱,銅和鋁的中期基本面仍然吸引。 該行表示,由於銅的供應增長有限,加上精煉產出受壓及傳統需求動力復甦等因素,2026及2027年的基本面將繼續支持價格。該行將今明兩年的銅價預測各自上調3%,分別由每磅4.24及4.68美元,提高至4.37和4.8美元。 至於鋁的需求表現不一,但供應受限,中國產量受限,其他地區的上行空間同樣有限。瑞銀將今明兩年的鋁價預測分別上調5%和2%,從每磅1.11及1.16美元,上調至1.17和1.18美元。 該行上調紫金(02899.HK)(601899.SH)、洛陽鉬業(03993.HK)(603993.SH)及江銅(00358.HK)今年盈測4%、5%及5%,並將明年盈測調升9%、6%及5%。該行又將中國宏橋(01378.HK)、中國鋁業(02600.HK)及天山鋁業(002532.SZ)明年盈利預測上調5%至8%,目標價及評級見另表。
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