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《大行》摩通:跡象顯示內房市場正進一步走弱 基本面首選潤地(01109.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)
摩根大通研究報告指出,有多個跡象顯示中國內地房地產市場正在進一步走弱,而且由於第四季度基數較高,數據或很快看起來更糟。 在短期內,摩通可能還無法預期「全面出擊」類型的政策提振,但當前背景表明,一線城市最近放寬措施的影響可能有限,政策制定者至少加大政策支持的可能性正在上升。 摩通表示,如過去所見,政策期望上升通常會推動股價上漲,因此摩通看到年底前有戰術性機會。事實上,期望已經在累積,正如自2025年7月以來中國房地產表現優於大市2%。在政策引發的上漲中,雖然困境公司(例如融創中國(01918.HK))通常會出現最強勁的超額表現(雖然是短暫的),摩通認為最佳風險回報在於非困境民營企業(龍湖集團(00960.HK))和中小型國有企業(中國金茂(00817.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK))。 對於偏好堅持大盤國有企業的投資者,摩通的基本面首選是華潤置地(01109.HK)和華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)(已經跑贏大市),但中國海外發展(00688.HK)作為落後者可能提供更多上漲空間。如果簡單地對標2024年10月的高峰,該行業可能有15%至20%的上漲空間。有關摩通對內房企業評級及目標價,詳見另表。
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