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《大行》巴克萊升澳門今年賭收預測6% 受惠股市財富效應及旅客安全考慮 銀娛及美高梅市佔提升
市場關注「超級黃金週」(今年國慶恰逢中秋節),形成長達八天假期(10月1至8日)臨近,濠賭股今日受追捧,金沙中國(01928.HK)上揚5%報21.36元,銀娛(00027.HK)漲4.5%,永利澳門(01128.HK)漲5.6%,新濠(00200.HK)彈高5.8%。 巴克萊週二(16日)發表報告,將今年澳門博彩收入預測上調6%至2,460億澳門元(310億美元),主要受惠於強勁增長動力、訪澳旅客旺盛及宏觀環境改善,而該行的預測現已高於澳門政府預期。該行指上調預測原因包括到訪旅客強勁、受惠大型活動及演唱會及新綜合渡假村項目逐步開業。宏觀方面,中國經濟趨穩、消費情緒改善、股市暢旺帶來財富效應、地緣政治局勢緩和及政策支持(包括因部分東南亞國家安全考慮,放寬往澳門簽證)均有助增長。貴賓廳業務反彈,高端中場則持續強勢。 該行料澳門今年第三季賭收增長加速至按年增長15%,並於2026年放緩至3%。以澳門銀河第四期項目爲首的新項目開業,應能部分抵銷衛星賭場結業帶來的短期影響,而澳博(00880.HK)將因此受創最深。 巴克萊指,澳門博彩業於今年第二季及之後持續復甦,今年首八個月行業賭收達1,630億澳門元按年增長7.2%。儘管如此,澳門政府於今年6月因宏觀不確定及首五個月增長疲弱,將全年賭收預測略爲下調至2,280億澳門元。按季比較,2025年第二季貴賓廳賭收增長12.9%,高於中場賭收的3.7%,該行認爲這受惠於簽證放寬、股市暢旺帶來財富效應,以及部分旅客因安全考慮轉往澳門而非東南亞國家(如泰國、菲律賓及柬埔寨)。 六大營運商中,銀娛及美高梅中國(02282.HK)市佔率提升,澳博則因受到衛星賭場結業等因素影響,市佔率跌至12.2%。 巴克萊同時新增對澳門2026年博彩總收入預測爲2,550億澳門元(32億美元),按年增長3%,相當於2019年水平的87%。值得留意的是,該行預測中場賭收在2025年將達2019年的115%,2026年更高達117%;至於貴賓廳賭收,2025年將達2019年的50%,2026年略升至51%。
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