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《大行》高盛料國內多晶硅價格下跌 升協鑫科技(03800.HK)目標價至1.2元
高盛研究報告指,內地太陽能行業的股價自7月初有所上升,因反內捲下,上游價格上調,國內多晶硅價格在7月至8月升約40%,9月企業更指引進一步調升價格,以彌補生產配額管控與收購產能所產生的額外成本。該行認為市場已計入每公斤60元人民幣的多晶硅價格,但考慮到需求前景疲弱,以及一線企業成本降低速度加快,此價格水平似乎過高。 該行料多晶硅價格可能較現價下跌20%至每公斤42元人民幣,而模組價格或維持每瓦特0.67元人民幣。該行認為市場忽略了一線企業快速降本的情況,同時在需求疲弱下,企業仍需要透過減價以及降低成本以爭取市佔率。 股份方面,該行升協鑫科技(03800.HK)目標價26%至1.2港元,因其產量規模與盈利前景顯著改善,但基於估值考量維持「中性」評級。行業中,該行更看好膠膜、高效模組及顆粒硅企業,而非玻璃;因此予福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)及信義光能(00968.HK)「沽售」評級,目標價分別維持6.6港元及1.9港元。
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