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中銀香港(02388.HK):美聯儲如期降息 但政策變數仍存
阿思達克 09-18 12:09
在9月的議息會議中,美聯儲將聯邦基金目標利率區間下調25個基點,至介乎4%至4.25%,為今年首次降息。中銀香港經濟研究員曾之騰表示,近期數據顯示,關稅對美國經濟造成的「滯脹」效應正逐漸浮現,但就業的下行趨勢較通脹上升更為明顯。本次議息聲明有關勞動力市場的措辭上亦出現顯著轉變,今年以來首次刪除勞動力市場狀況依然穩健的表述,轉而強調失業風險上升及風險平衡的變化,均反映美聯儲正給予就業問題更高考慮權重,這成為推動本次降息的關鍵因素。 曾之騰指,儘管降息週期已重新啟動,但考慮到經濟前景仍不明朗,加上美國政府頻頻表達對貨幣政策走勢的偏好,這些因素都可能削弱未來貨幣政策的可預測性。曾之騰亦指出,美元重新進入寬鬆週期,有助刺激本港經濟活動,可望利好本港資產表現。 具體而言,預計香港利率將隨美元利率下降而回落,有助降低企業融資成本,提升企業增加資本開支的意願;美聯儲降息亦有望在一定程度上對沖全球經濟的下行風險,提振製造業活動,香港的貿易活動亦將從中受益。與此同時,港股市場亦有望受惠於流動性環境的改善,推動其估值中樞上升。
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