《大行》花旗:優化資本投資計劃料推動超豪宅市場持續跑贏 首選領展(00823.HK)太地(01972.HK)新地(00016.HK)
花旗研究報告指出,行政長官李家超發表任期內第四份《施政報告》,當中提及優化資本投資計劃,預期超豪宅市場將持續跑贏。該行稱,樓價3,000萬至5,000萬元單位成交佔今年上半年整體成交約1.2%,涉交易額約140億元。新措施可能推動新地(00016.HK)旗下海璇、天璽-海及帝景園、信置(00083.HK)旗下ST. GEORGE'S MANSIONS、希慎(00014.HK)旗下灣仔南竹林苑、恆地(00012.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)旗下西半山衛城道8號「天御」等項目的銷售。
新界北議題上,報告提及加速農地活化與交換,允許自願交還將被收回的土地,以抵消現址土地交換或大規模土地處置的應付款項;採用「按實際建築面積付款」而非按最大允許建築面積支付,以降低土地溢價等措施。花旗認為,這可能加速價值釋放,並為與內地開發商、建築商、金融機構的合作提供空間。可能受益者包括恆地(持約4,200萬呎土儲)、新地(持約3,000萬呎)、新世界(持約1,580萬呎)等。
報告續提及,促進辦公室、酒店改建或重建為學生宿舍。對於辦公室,花旗認為將乙級商廈(如信置的尖炒咀亞太中心、銅鑼灣信和廣場、觀塘富利廣場;陽光房地產基金(00435.HK);招商局商業房託(01503.HK)旗下商廈或丙級商廈改建更具經濟效益,但A級物業組合改建的可行性較低。
花旗預期,本地地產股本年至今累升約25%後,2025年第四季度表現將受以下因素驅動:(1)樓價:上週二手樓價(CCL領先指數)按週上升1.2%,年內累升0.8%;若持續,可能縮窄地產股資產淨值(NAV)折讓;(2)美國聯儲局減息25個基點後,估計香港最優惠利率下調12.5個基點;(3)預期香港及內地黃金週零售表現強勁。
花旗首選領展房產基金(00823.HK)、太古地產(01972.HK)、新地;亦看好恆隆地產(00101.HK)(內地零售及杭州商場)。考慮新盤定價能力上升,疊加潛在P按息下調,該行料今年末季住宅樓價及成交量可觀(decent)。
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