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恆生:鮑威爾仍擁主要話語權 未來單次會議出現大幅減息機會偏低
阿思達克 09-18 12:38
恆生銀行高級經濟師唐嘉逸表示,美國聯儲局一如市場預期調低目標利率0.25厘,主要是考慮到美國勞工市場在過去數月明顯轉差,需要減息以加強對勞工市場及整體經濟的支持。雖然利率點陣圖預測顯示,今年仍有兩次減息機會,但聯儲局主席鮑威爾取態相對保守,表示今次減息只是從風險管理角度出發,並強調未來決定仍然取決於經濟數據。此外,今次投票結果顯示只有新任理事米蘭投下反對票,並支持減息半厘。這反映雖然美國總統特朗普多番向聯儲局施壓,但主席鮑威爾仍保留委員會中的主要話語權,顯示未來單次會議上出現大幅度減息的機會仍然偏低。 不過,考慮到美國勞工市場進一步惡化的風險,加上關稅對通脹只有短暫性及有限的影響,預計聯儲局在今年10月及12月份的會議上分別會再減息0.25厘。因應聯儲局重啟減息,本港利率有望跟隨向下,支持香港的經濟表現。惟因銀行總結餘水平較低,需要留意本港利率或會較受季節性因素影響,令其波動性增加。 恆生銀行財富管理首席投資總監梁君馡指出,聯儲局宣布減息25點子,主席鮑威爾指此次減息屬於「風險管理」,他雖然承認就業市場降溫,但也繼續強調通脹壓力未消。官員們最新預測年底前或會再減息兩次。由於今年共減息三次已是符合市場預期,昨晚股債匯市的反應皆不大。由於環球股市的估值已反映許多關於減息重啟的樂觀情緒,未來一季的投資部署應該以持盈保泰及控制風險為主。不偏重單一市場的高增長股,以高質素和派息穩定的成熟市場及亞洲市場股票為核心投資。 隨聯儲局重啟減息,未來美國的通脹變化仍需觀察,短期利率或下跌較快,而中年期的美元債券(3至7年)料將受惠於市場對穩定收益,平衡利率波動風險的需求。未來部署要降低現金及貨幣市場工具比重,並加強中年期債券部位的投資。
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