《大行》中銀國際降中煤(01898.HK)評級至「沽售」 上調神華(01088.HK)目標價
中銀國際發表研究報告指,雖然目前市場預期國內港口煤炭庫存水平相對偏低,可為冬季現貨動力煤價格帶來支持,但考慮到第二季價格水平遜預期,仍將今年全年現貨煤價預測下調4%。
該行預期,鋼廠盈利持續受壓,將導致焦煤價格在短期內進一步走弱,但基於7月份強勁升幅,將2025至2027年基準焦煤價格預測上調7%至13%。中銀國際認為內地煤炭板塊當前估值水平缺乏吸引力,維持行業「中性」評級,並將中煤能源(01898.HK)的評級降至「沽售」,因公司今年可能錄得負數自由現金流,管理層似乎無意提高派息比例,2025至2027年預測股息回報率僅達3.7%至3.9%,目標價從7.39元降至7.21元,並因應對煤價最新預期,將該公司2025至2027年盈利預測下調10%至16%。
該行又指,神華能源(01088.HK)中期業績展示出盈利具韌性,在上半年煤價下跌期間,其煤炭業務單位利潤降幅為最小,維持「持有」評級,目標價由32.18元上調至39.48元。
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