《大行》高盛:內地航空業暑假表現遜預期 上調三大內地航空股目標價
高盛研究報告指,內地航空業次季強勁反彈,但該行認為暑假表現未如理想,國內航空需求仍然疲弱,因商務旅行仍未復甦;而國際機票價格大幅下跌就主要因中日航線運力過剩,航空公司高估日本世博會期間的需求。
展望未來,考慮到航空公司已進一步減慢增購機隊,且預測2025至27年淨需求增長率為3%、1%及1%,該行認為國際機票價格的按年跌幅將顯著收窄,國內機票價格亦有機會自9月起改善。另一方面,油價下跌亦將對航空公司的盈利有正面影響。
股份方面,該行看好中國國航(00753.HK),因其在盈利較高的航線中佔比較高,若票價上升將成為最大受惠者;國航H股目標價由6.5港元升至7.3港元,國航A股(601111.SH)目標價由8.6元人民幣升至9.6元人民幣,評級「買入」。
另外,該行將中國東方航空股份(00670.HK)H股目標價由3.3港元升至3.7港元,東航A股(600115.SH)目標價由4.6元人民幣升至5.1元人民幣,均予「買入」評級。中國南方航空股份(01055.HK)H股目標價由4.1港元升至4.6港元,評級「買入」;南航A股(600029.SH)目標價由5.5元人民幣升至6.2元人民幣,評級「中性」。
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