《大行》瑞銀:施政報告料利好本港樓市交投 恆地(00012.HK)新地(00016.HK)信置(00083.HK)受惠
瑞銀發表研究報告指,施政報告將於下周三(17日)公布,市場憧憬當局將進一步削減價值400萬至600萬元的住宅物業印花稅、設立「購房資金通」計劃、進一步放寬資本投資者入境計劃下住宅物業投資資格、吸引更多內地訪港、加快北部都會區發展,以及就房地產投資信託基金(REITs)納入互聯互通提出時間表。
該行認為樓價400萬至600萬元物業的印花稅從現時1.5%至2.25%削減至僅100元的可能性屬適中,估計若實施,年度稅收損失將少於20億元,遠低於2023至2025年間每年土地收入140億至700億元,預期針對性印花稅削減可進一步刺激市場交投,加速去庫存及支持土地銷售。
瑞銀預期「購房資金通」在短期推出可能性較低,亦不預期全國性計劃短期推出,資本投資者入境計劃下豪宅投資限制進一步放寬機會則屬中等,另外預期「多次往返」個人遊簽注可能擴展至深圳以外其他大灣區城市居民。選股方面,該行預料新一份施政報告將利好恆地(00012.HK)、新地(00016.HK)、信置(00083.HK)等發展商,而更多內地旅客訪港將支持地區商場業主,包括九龍倉置業(01997.HK)、希慎(00014.HK)及新地,加快北都發展對港鐵(00066.HK)或屬負面,因資本開支憂慮上升,但可能推動農地加快收回,對恆地屬正面。而REITs納入互聯互通進展,瑞銀預期對領展(00823.HK)屬正面。
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