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《大行》大和:港股上半年盈利增速放緩 上遊與TMT行業強勁 汽車業盈利動能降溫
大和發表港股及A股市場報告表示,總結今年上半年業績,雙重盈利驅動,對應仍偏疲弱的內需。該行指香港市場方面,企業於今年上半年營收及盈利增長分別放緩至-1.2%和+3.9%(2024年上半年爲+1.9%及+4.7%)。相對市場預期,2025年上半年度有約六成的港股公司業績不及分析師一致預測,高於A股市場的26.7%。上遊行業的轉機與TMT(科技、媒體及電信)持續增長加速A股盈利復甦,需求不足壓制消費與內銀盈利,汽車業則在價格戰下盈利顯着下滑。 該行指,A股業績意外加速,雖然在疲弱的國內需求下,收入按年增長持平,但淨利潤按年增速由2024年上半年的-0.1%,至2025年上半年快速回升至+2.5%,主要由上遊行業帶動。因此,製造業虧損企業佔比由2025年一季的13%迅速降至第二季的11.4%,惟此改善仍不足以扭轉中國的「通縮螺旋」。 「雙線驅動」:上遊業與TMT強勢。受惠於2024年上半年的低基數、更有效的成本控制(水泥、有色金屬)、原材料成本回落(鋼鐵)、產品結構升級(鋼鐵),材料(鋼鐵至建材)及造紙等板塊於2025年上半年實現穩健盈利復甦;金銅價格飆升亦利好紫金礦業(02899.HK)等有色金屬企業。 TMT方面,受惠於監管放鬆及強勁的產品管線(如《哪吒2》上映),網遊(完美世界(002624.SZ))與影視(光線傳媒(300251.SZ))的盈利改善。同時,AI驅動的全球科技上行、「國產化」趨勢,以及產品升級,持續推動電子(寒武紀(688256.SH)、工業富聯(601138.SH))、通信設備(中際旭創(300308.SZ))、計算機(海康威視(002415.SZ))的盈利,尤其在美國加徵關稅後,前置需求被進一步催化。 除了這兩條主線,政府刺激政策亦推動機械設備、國防及家電板塊在2025年上半年盈利擴張;非銀金融企業亦受惠於股市繁榮業績改善。此外,大部分本港上市互聯網平臺在今年上半年亦錄得理想業績,主要由新業務收入增長帶動(快手(01024.HK)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK))。 「內需型行業」仍是拖累。相對地,產能過剩及內需不足,繼續拖累煤炭、房地產及廣義消費(家電除外)的盈利增長。雖然銀行在2025年第二季由虧轉盈,但業績仍受制於信貸投放增速偏弱及息差收窄。值得注意的是,儘管出口保持強勁,汽車行業在第二季因價格戰,盈利動能顯着降溫。
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