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《大行》高盛降比亞迪(01211.HK)目標價至130元 下調銷量及利潤預測
高盛發表報告指,比亞迪(01211.HK)次季收入及毛利率分別較該行預期低6%及1.8個百分點。收入未達預期因手機零部件及組裝業務收入低於預期,這是由於比亞迪與比亞迪電子(00285.HK)之間的內部交易抵銷金額增加。而毛利率下跌主要受618促銷活動成本高於預期,以及向經銷商發放紅包影響。 該行料比亞迪第二季每車單位利潤(撇除比亞迪電子)523元人民幣,對比今年首季爲5,800萬人民幣,單位利潤按季下降主要原因是:1)自動駕駛版型號的成本增加了4,400元人民幣;2)6月爲期一個月的「618」促銷導致利潤減少2,900元人民幣;3)向經銷商發放的紅包支出666元人民幣。在這些因素中,(1)是經常性成本,而2)和3)則是一次性支出。隨着內地政府「反內卷」政策使價格趨於穩定,並考慮到較高的成本,該行預計國內市場的單位利潤將在2025年第三季度恢復至4,400元人民幣,第四季度將達到5,000元人民幣。 該行將比亞迪2025至2027年銷量預測由550萬至680萬輛,下調至500萬至600萬輛,並下調毛利率預測0.4至0.9個百分點,因此將淨利潤預測下調12%至21%。最新H股目標價由139港元降至130港元,A股(002594.SZ)目標價由141.33元降至133元人民幣,此按現金流折現率作估值,評級「買入」。
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