《大行》高盛升農夫山泉(09633.HK)目標價至53.2元 對利潤率擴張持樂觀態度
高盛發表研究報告指,農夫山泉(09633.HK)今年上半年業績穩健,銷售及淨利潤分別年增增長16%、22%,預計今年下半年及2026年飲用水部門增長將加速,茶及果汁部門因新產品推出保持強勁勢頭。
高盛重申對農夫山泉飲料行業利潤率擴張高可見度的樂觀看法,因成本優勢持續,領先企業在再投資方面保持紀律,並聚焦在利潤率上,亦注意到主要競爭對手娃哈哈正面臨公關問題及杭州地方政府可能的幹預,農夫山泉或有從娃哈哈流失市場份額中獲益的機會。
考慮到飲料部門強於預期的銷售趨勢及主要由營運費用控制和營運槓桿推動的穩健利潤改善,高盛將農夫山泉2025至2027年每股盈利預估上調約4%,收入預估上調1%以內。
高盛現預計農夫山泉今年下半年、2025年銷售分別增長21%、18%,得益於去年下半年低基數(按年下降7%),其中今年下半年飲用水、果汁部門銷售按年增長22%、23%。
高盛現預計農夫山泉2025、2026年淨利潤分別爲152億元人民幣、176億元人民幣,按年增長25%、16%;基於2027年市盈率30倍,12個月目標價從48港元更新至53.2港元;評級爲「買入」。
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