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《大行》匯豐研究維持三大航空股「減持」評級 大幅下調盈測
匯豐環球研究發表研究報告指,三大內地航空公司次季客座率雖然改善,加上油價下跌及人民幣兌美元走強,但期內仍錄得總虧損98.4億元人民幣,對比去年同期虧損51億元人民幣近乎翻倍,當中以國航(00753.HK)表現最佳,次季錄得利潤2.38億元人民幣,扭轉去年同期的11億元人民幣虧損,而南航(01055.HK)虧損則擴大至7.86億元人民幣。 首都機場(00694.HK)上半年虧損收窄至16.4億元人民幣,源自於期內客流量增加及營運開支減少,但免稅業務未見起色,今年首七個月人均銷售額爲140至170元人民幣,低於2019年同期的300元人民幣以上。同時由於北京大興國際機場分流,首都機場上半年客流量僅恢復至2019年同期的69%。 該行認爲,雖然內地三大航空股二季財務表現略有改善,但下半年要實現可持續盈利仍面臨挑戰,預期行業反內卷或促進協作穩定票價及遏制掠奪性定價行爲,不過相信會循序漸進地發生,市場供應過剩及激烈競爭壓力仍存在,因此預期短期票價水平難以出現顯着改善。 匯豐研究下調中資三大航司盈利預測,將國航今年盈利預測下調88%,將東航(00670.HK)及南航今年預測從盈利10.38億及33.97億元人民幣,下調至虧損3.12億及5.33億元人民幣,並將國航、東航及南航2026年盈利預測分別下調73%、60%及68%,2027年盈測下調50%、37%及45%,均維持「減持」評級。匯豐研究同樣維持首都機場(00694.HK)「減持」評級,目標價由2.5元下調至2.3元。
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