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研報掘金丨方正證券: 維持中國人壽“強烈推薦”評級 後續利潤和NBV有望隨市場回暖
格隆匯 08-28 14:45
方正證券研報指出,中國人壽披露1H25業績,基本符合預期。1H25公司歸母淨利潤409.3億 /yoy+6.9%,增速較1Q25的+39.5%顯著回落,預計因2Q25利率下行,部分保單盈利水平變化,使保險服務費用增加(1H25yoy+5.2%,但1Q25 yoy-32.8%),拖累利潤增速。但1H25末公司合同服務邊際餘額7,547億元 /較年初+1.6%,在新業務快速增長下實現築底回升,有望為長期利潤增長奠定基礎。公司充分重視股東回報,1H25 DPS 0.238元/yoy+19%,分紅率為16.4%。公司NBV在高基數逐步提速,個險渠道分紅險佔比大幅提升,銀保業務增長迅猛銷售回暖下;同時公司權益類配置佔比提升、OCI提高有望平滑債券配置壓力,TPL敞口又可保證公司獲得權益彈性,後續利潤和NBV有望隨市場回暖、居民挪儲等下穩健增長。維持公司“強烈推薦”評級。
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