《大行》瑞銀升中國財險(02328.HK)目標價至20.7元 上半年業績勝預期
瑞銀發表報告指,中國財險(02328.HK)今年上半年業績優於市場預期,認為稅後淨利潤(NPAT)增長由以下因素推動:承保利潤按年激增45%;總投資收入按年增長27%。
在2025年預估中,瑞銀預計總保費、汽車保險、非汽車保險保費增長分別為4.5%、3.5%、5.8%。該保險公司目標汽車、非汽車保險綜合成本率分別低於96%和約99%。
瑞銀表示,在投資收入方面,受以下因素影響,第三季度增長勢頭可能放緩,符合行業趨勢,原因為:股市收益基準較高;利率上升可能導致債券公允價值降低。儘管如此,瑞銀認為,鑑於人保的按公允價值計入損益的股票敞口較小且投資槓桿較低,其盈利壓力相較同行將較小。
瑞銀將中國財險2025年淨資產價值、稅後利潤預測各上調4%、6%,反映出超出預期的綜合成本率和改善的股市情緒;瑞銀也上調估值倍數,以反映更有利的宏觀背景和政策順風,因此,將中國財險目標價從18.7港元上調至20.7港元,評級「買入」。
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