《大行》摩通:碧桂園服務(06098.HK)上半年盈利未達預期 但派息指引上調
摩通大通發表報告表示,碧桂園服務(06098.HK)2025年上半年核心淨利潤按年下降15%,較該行預估低6%,儘管收入按年增長10%,但毛利率收縮。業績未達預期主要因行政費用增長超預期,按年增長23%。然而,令人意外的亮點是管理層承諾2025財年目標派息比率為60%,高於2024財年的33%,意味著6.5%至7%的股息收益率。評級「減持」,目標價5元。
摩通指出,碧桂園服務物業管理毛利出乎意料地好於預期,物業管理業務的收入及毛利按年分別增長7%及2%,分別高於該行預估3%及18%。
然而,碧桂園服務毛利率進一步收縮,除非社區增值服務外,所有分部的毛利率均按年下降。物業管理毛利率按年下降1.1個百分點至21.8%,社區增值服務毛利率按年下降8.6個百分點至30.4%。整體毛利率按年下降2.6個百分點至18.5%,核心淨利潤率按年下降2.4個百分點至7%,較摩通預估低0.8個百分點。
此外,應收賬款未見改善,淨應收賬款天數按年持平為157天,相比2024年底為147天,屬行業內最高水平之一。應收賬款總額按年增長8%至199億人民幣。
摩通表示,市場對碧桂園服務每股盈利預測共識可能下調,因當前市場共識預測淨利潤按年持平。然而,基於公司最新的派息目標,每股股息預測應會上調。在市場初步消化業績未達預期的影響後,該行認為股價反應可能轉為正面,因派息指引上調。
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