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《大行》瑞銀升下半年澳門博彩總收入增長預測至12% 上調永利(01128.HK)評級至「買入」
瑞銀研究報告指,將澳門2025年下半年博彩總收入(GGR)按年增長預測由7%上調至12%,對比今年上半年按年增長4%。該行認為,澳門的博彩市場格局正在轉變,酒店客房增長不再是市場份額增長的主要推動因素,關鍵因素已變成賭檯分布、高端產品及服務等,並料中低端中場業務持續受到內地旅遊競爭及中國宏觀環境的挑戰。 隨著博彩市場持續高端化,該行預期高端博企如永利澳門(01128.HK)及美高梅中國(02282.HK)將能維持或擴大市場份額,其相較於大型博企的估值折讓將會收窄。該行料永利澳門今年第三季中場市場份額達12.2%(較原預測升0.5個百分點),估美高梅中國今年第三季中場市場份額達16.4%(較原預測升0.7個百分點)。該行料金沙中國(01928.HK)及銀娛(00027.HK)國今年第三季中場市場份額各為24.5%(較原預測跌0.2個百分點)及19.5%(較原預測跌0.1個百分點) 該行將永利澳門評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,目標價由6.1元升至8.4元,相當預測明年企業價值對EBITDA的9.5倍;維持對美高梅中國「買入」評級,目標價由15.9元升至19.8元,相當預測明年企業價值對EBITDA的9.5倍。 瑞銀維持金沙中國「中性」評級,目標價由17.8元升至21.6元,相當預測明年企業價值對EBITDA的11.5倍;維持銀娛「買入」評級,目標價由43.9元升至46.9元,相當預測明年企業價值對EBITDA的11.7倍。
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